Baseball Pick - July 21, 2008

We nailed our last two 5-unit plays including a 5-unit Game of the Month winner on St. Louis last Thursday. Today we follow that up with five plays and a rare pair of 5-unit picks!

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: San Diego at Cincinnati (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati -141 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.1)

What a difference a year makes, as this San Diego team just keeps putting a bigger number in the loss column. After riding high on a season's best 13-6 run, the Padres have fallen back to what we have known them to be this season - a poor team that just doesn’t' score, and when they do they lose anyway. Their current run is 6-23, with six-straight in the loss column. The Pads have scored five runs or more in their last three, a feat they have accomplished only twice before all season. However, both times they did, it was followed by a loss. Cincinnati enters playing very well at 12-7 over their last 19, and averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last eight. The Reds certainly have enough to get the win here.

Anytime you get a chance to lay short odds playing against the Braves on the road, it is worth a long look. The Braves were humiliated at home by the lowly Nats dropping the last two of a three-game set in Atlanta. The Braves road resume is not pretty, where they have been an anemic 15-32 on the season. Florida continues to surprise just a half game out in the East, and look like a team that’s improving. What they have done is beat the bad teams at home consistently, having logged a 21-11 mark against teams with a losing record on the season at home. They are playing superb baseball right now winners of eight of their last 11 games, and we will ride them at home in this one.

We indicated why Florida was a valued choice against the moneyline here, so it is hard to resist the nearly two-to-one dog role they face vs. the runline. The value is increased off the fact that the Marlins have been a momentum-based home team all season. They are 22-12 against the -1.5 runline at home when they are playing their fourth straight at home or more.

It is hard to figure out this Boston team, but why not take advantage of the perception vs. the reality? Boston is a good team, but not on the road. They have been nearly unbeatable at home producing a 36-11 mark and a winning percentage of 76.6%. They have been a horrible road team at 21-32 producing a winning percentage of 39.6%. Recently, their road woes have been even worse as they have now produced just two wins in their last 12 road games. The bottom line is at this loss rate on the road projected over 162 games, they would lose nearly 100. A team like that would never be favored on the road, especially in this range hence the value. You must also remember that this is a team that has already taken two of three at home over Boston already this season. There is just too much value here to pass this one up.

Our logic against the moneyline here prevails against the runline as well, and a chance to double-dip a game that features a lot of value on the home team. Add in the fact that Boston strands a lot of base runners this season, and has scored three runs or less in three straight games. Teams in this situation have been 137-210 to the -1.5 runline, so more value on Seattle against the runline as well. Seattle has also feasted at home on the runline against teams that strand 7.5 runners a game or more such as Boston, where they are 62-37 against the runline over such teams.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Here we show our blog baseball.
• Read our Baseball odds lines and spreads here.
• Take a look at our mlb baseball ATS recprds here.
• View our updated 2008 MLB picks.
• View our 2008 season MLB baseball handicapping preview here.
• Don't forget to read our baseball betting approach here.
• Don't forget to visit our baseball picks.
• View our mlb sportsbook here.
• View our updated Baseball Game Analysis.
• Here we show our MLB picks.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-20-2008
Justin Duchscherer has put together an amazing run for the A's. He has not pitched a bad game all season, and has pitched 10 consecutive quality starts not allowing more than two runs in any of th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-19-2008
Randy Wolf has not been pitching well of late, and the Padres have not played well all season as they continue to struggle putting runs on the scoreboard. The Padres made a 13-6 run, but have fallen b...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-18-2008
Hot teams like the Mets find ways to win. Last night the Mets plated four runs in the ninth to grab their 10th straight win, so getting a team on fire at virtually even odds always shows value. After ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-17-2008
While Jake Peavy remains one of the top pitchers in baseball, the Padres remain one of the worst teams. They had one good run during the first half, which even bad teams do, going 12-5. Before and aft...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-13-2008
Seattle is just that bad. We aren't even at the All-Star break and they are already 19 games out of first in their division, they own the worst record in the AL, and they are 17-31 away from ...