darrell,

Rough night last night as we only hit one pick. Two picks tonight.

Check out my 12-month performance here.

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Good luck today...

Game: Boston at Seattle (8:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Boston +118 (risk 200 to win 236)

Boston's road record is better than Seattle's at home. The Mariners score just 4.4 per game at home and over their last seven games they are scoring just 3.7 per game. Boston's offense has slowed down of late too but I give them more of a chance of breaking out than I do Seattle. Home favorites up to -150 with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games are just 11-31 (26%) in July games over the past decade. Also, road teams at +125 to -125 with a cold starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00+ over his last 3 starts, after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs are 62-25 (71%) over the last 5 seasons. Jamie Moyer is a good pitcher but he is 2-15 vs. teams scoring 5.2+ or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Red Sox as a rare dog here.

Wow. Mark Buerhle has been awful of late. He's put up an 0-3 record with a 13.82 ERA in July after going 9-4 with a 3.22 ERA prior to that. But I'm not reading too much into that. First of all, two of those three games were away. The one home game was vs. powerhouse Boston and he gave up 5 runs in 6.3 innings in that one - not terrible. At home on the season he's still got a 3.20 ERA. And over the past two seasons, he's 22-6 as a favorite. John Wasdin goes for the Rangers and he's just 5-26 vs. teams that score 5.2+ runs per game. Home favorites of -125 to -175 starting a pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 with a well rested bullpen that has thrown 2 or fewer innings in each of the last 3 games are 32-5 (87%) over the past ten years. White Sox here.