Major League Baseball Pick - July 20, 2009

We connected on just two of our six picks yesterday to give back a few units. We are still up over the last five weeks to the tune of 76-62 for +33 units. Seven picks are on today's MLB menu.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	45-34 last 79 picks	57%	+$2540
MLB	76-62 last 138 picks	55%	+$3290
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$25610

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: New York Mets at Washington (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington -130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)

Both the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals have sure struggled over the last month or so, and the Mets have been reduced to a poor team because of multiple injuries to key players. The results of which have diminished their offense to a fragment of what it once was. The Mets have struggled so bad they have been shutout six times in their last 23 games. They have also scored three runs or less in 16 of their last 23 - certainly hard to find the win column with such poor production. They will go with Livan Hernandez in this one who has been a colossal struggle on the hill, sporting an 11.57 ERA over his last three starts. This is more of a fade the Mets play, than a play on the Nats as the Mets are not only physically bankrupt right now, they are emotionally bankrupt. I will go with the Nats in this one.

The San Francisco Giants have been a surprise team all year, and the biggest three reasons are Cain, Lincecum, and home field. The Giants are 31-15 at home. Those three elements have been lethal to opponents, but take them away and the Giants have been not only reduced to ordinary, but reduced to a poor team. When the Giants have hit the road without Lincecum or Cain on the mound, they have just  five wins on the season! The task will be a most difficult one tonight as they take on Tommy Hansen, who is 4-0 with a 2.50 ERA and has allowed zero runs in his last two starts at home. There is a decided advantage here to the Braves, so they get the call in this one.

To succeed on the runline, you have to find a team to play against in their worst possible circumstances. You also have to have a pitcher that has shutdown capabilities for the team of your choice. Those elements collide in this one, as the Giants, as noted in my moneyline depiction, are at their worst on the road without Cain, or Lincecum on the hill. They have managed to win all of five games without them! The Braves and Tommy Hansen, certainly have the shutdown capability as he has a 2.50 ERA on the season, and has not allowed a run in his last two home starts. I'm grabbing the Braves on the runline as well in this one.

Sometimes when you see a runaway freight train, you have to get on and go for the ride. The Phillies have been an explosive team over the last two weeks. They have been in one of those stretches where offense and pitching are peaking at the same time. The result has been a pitching staff that has allowed just 32 runs in 13 games, and seen the bats booming across 6.23 runs per contest as well. The staff has produced nine gems, allowing the opponent two runs or less in the last 13. Then add to the equation that the Phillies have been their lethal best, deleivering the knockout blow to lefthand pitching, with a 20-11 mark on the season. The Cubs have been a poor performing team offensively on the road as they have produced a meager 3.8 runs per game. As a dog on the road, the results are a very poor 16-37. The Phillies are cashing in on 50 of their last 73 off a win, and 35 of 51 against the NL Central. These are hard numbers to ignore, so I'm pulling the trigger on the Phillies.

There is lots of overwhelming numbers here that point to a big Philly win. With the Cubs at 3.8 runs per game on the road and struggling to win as a dog, the Phil's have the hottest hand in baseball right now at 12-1 over 13 games, scoring at 6.23 per game, and allowing next to nothing (32 total runs in the 13). Explosive offense with hot pitching, leads to runline wins, so I'm calling for the Philly's win on the runline.

The Twins have been light years apart when they play at home vs. on the road. The Twins have been 81-48 at the Metrodome the past two seasons, while only 54-72 on the road. That takes a championship-caliber team with a .628 winning percentage and reduces them to a poor .429 team. Nick Blackburn has followed that path, and then some. While the Twins have ridden his pitching at home to a 9-1 mark in his last 10 home starts, they have severely struggled with him when he takes the hill on the road as they are a woeful 3-13 in his last 16 road starts. The Twins are also a much worse offense on the road coming in at -1.3 runs per game on the road vs. their home production. We have a live dog here, so the A's get the call.

You have to look at this from an opportunistic point of view. I don't think anyone would dispute the fact that the Twins are the better team here, but they are not the team in the better situation, which is what this is all about. The Twins are not a special team on the road, and even though Nick Blackburn is a better-than-average pitcher, he has gotten extremely poor results on the road. This year the Twins come in at just 3-7 in his 10 road starts, but the overall picture is bigger than that. The Twins are just 8-23 in his last 31 road starts, so an offering of +1.5 runs against a pitcher that has led his team to wins in just 25.8% of his last 31 road starts, is certainly well stocked with value. I'll go with the A's here on the runline.

Results: 6-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

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• Updated today: MLB Game Analysis.
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• Take a look at our Baseball odds lines and spreads here.
• View our mlb handicapping here.
• View our baseball ATS recrds here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-19-2009
The Mariners don't score a lot but their pitching and defense have been tremendous. They allow just 4.1 runs per game overall, 3.9 per game in day games and they have given up just 2.6 per game ov...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-18-2009
The past has led many to see Johan Santana post at almost even money and become a no-brainer pick. That has changed with this Mets team that has been riddled with injuries, the latest Gary Sheffield, ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-17-2009
The Seattle Mariners certainly have a good one in Felix Hernandez. He has been in control over his last nine starts, but as good as he has been, Cleveland has reduced him from All-Star to ordinary as ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-16-2009
Second half action gets underway tonight with the Oakland A's hosting the Anaheim Angels. It has been a breakout season for Dallas Braden of the A's, who enters this one with a 2.45 ERA in his...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-12-2009
The New York Yankees have always had problems in LA facing the Angels. They are now 5-16 over their last 21 games here and the Angels have scored nearly seven runs a game over the 21 game stretch and ...