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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
MLB Baseball Premium Edition
July 20, 2006

darrell,

Got the slight profit last night. Three picks today.

WUNDERDOG 2006 RESULTS (UNITS)
SPORTWINS-LOSSES%UNITS
MLB 54-32 last 86 picks 63%+9.4
NFL 87-62 last season 58%+25
CBB 174-128 last season 58%+46
NHL 208-140 last season 60%+24.6
NBA 207-197 last season 51%+10
CFB 66-61 last season 52%+5
TOTAL  +120

Check out my 12-month performance here.

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Good luck today...

The Wunderdog


Premium Picks

Game: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Minnesota -300 (risk 300 to win 100)

Yes, huge line I know - but hear me out. Much of what applied to yesterday's 4-star pick on the Twins applies again today. The D-Rays are the third-worst road team in the league (now 17-36). They've lost six straight while Minnesota has won six in a row. As bad as Tampa is on the road, Minnesota is that good at home (actually better). The Twins are the best home team in the entire league having won 36 out of 47 in the Metrodome including a 23-2 stretch dating back to late May. After last night's win, they are 22-4 as a big favorite of -150 or higher this season. They score 5.9 per game at home. Tampa is scoring 2.7 runs per game over their last seven. per game over their last seven. To make matters worse for the D-Rays, Minnesota starts Johan Santana and his 2.93 ERA. At home he's a perfect 6-0 with a 2.40 ERA and over the past two seasons he's 24-4 in dome games. He's also 20-2 over that span vs. losing teams. Finally, road underdogs of +150 or more batting .255 or worse on the season after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 9-52 (15%) over the last 5 seasons. Yes, very big line here but a game I can't resist as I see no way for Tampa to win this one.


Game: Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Los Angeles Angels -177 (risk 300 to win 169)

Hot vs. cold here. LA has won 13 of 14 and KC has lost 8 of 9. The Angels own a 17-3 mark vs. the Royals over the past three seasons including a perfect 7-0 here in KC. Ervin Santana has a 3.88 ERA and 11-3 record coming into this one. Over his last three starts he's 3-0 having hiven up just 15 hits to 17 strikeouts in 22 innings. Jimmy Gobble goes for KC and he's been poor all season (6.23 ERA) and worse of late (7.43 over last three games). Home teams with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last 3 games and a well rested bullpen who did not throw an inning last game are 12-33 (27%) over the past decade. LA is playing their best ball of the season and I like 'em here.


Game: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on San Diego +111 (risk 300 to win 333)

Chan Ho Park has pedestrian numbers this season (6-5, 4.49 ERA). But, he's done well on the road of late going 3-0 with a 3.42 ERA in his last four road starts. Nick Lowry has been slightly worse (4-6, 4.58 ERA) and he's off a beating at the hands of Philadelphia in which he gave up 6 earned runs before being yanked in the fourth inning. San Diego is 29-16 vs. the Giants over the past three seasons including 13-7 here in the Bay. Their bats are very hot (hitting .347 over their past seven games) and over the past three seasons they are 16-4 on the road after a 3+ game stretch hitting .333 or better. They are also a very strong 27-19 this season as an underdog and 22-12 vs. winning teams. San Francisco is 42-55 at home vs. right handers over the past two seasons and 44-11 this season off a one-run win.


Resources
MLB Baseball Resources
Up-to-Date Major League Baseball ATS Records
Major League Game-of-the-Day Preview
Live Major League Baseball Lines
Major League Baseball News
Discount Sporting Event Tickets

Pass It On
How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
Pass It On

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Good Luck.

The Wunderdog

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