Major League Baseball Pick - July 19, 2009

We gave back 3 units yesterday. Today we look for a bounceback with six picks in four games...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	43-31 last 74 picks	58%	+$2910
MLB	74-58 last 132 picks	56%	+$3900
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$26590

 

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Seattle at Cleveland (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Seattle -110 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

The Mariners don't score a lot but their pitching and defense have been tremendous. They allow just 4.1 runs per game overall, 3.9 per game in day games and they have given up just 2.6 per game over their last seven. Compare that to the 5.5 per game the Indians allow and 5.7 in day games. Making it more difficult for Cleveland today is the fact that they face Erik Bedard who has posted a 2.63 ERA thus far in 13 games this season. Seattle wins the games they are supposed to win as they are 21-11 this season vs. teams that are at .460 or worse. Cleveland is just 19-31 vs. winning teams. I like the Mariners here.

The Nationals are horrible and things haven't gotten better even after the manager change. So no one wants to back this team. But this is a great opportunity to do just that. The Cubs are favored here despite a 19-25 road record and a starting pitcher who has seen a total of just 10.7 innings in five games, being called up from Triple-A. The Nats also go with an unproven pitcher but at least he is at home. The Cubs are managing just 3.8 runs per game on the road this season. I like the Nats at home here.

Expecting the Cubs to win by 2+ runs here on the road is expecting a lot. They have a losing road record both straight-up and vs. the run line. Given their low offensive production away from home (3.8 runs per game), it's a leap to expect them to win here in a blowout. The Cubs are just 96-146 vs. the run line over the past decade when coming off three straight wins. The Nats are 70-40 vs. the run line at home when the total is in this range (9 to 10) the past three seasons. I like Washington on the run line here.

The Yankees go with Joba to complete the sweep of the Tigers today. Chamberlain is 4-2 thus far despite average pitching. The point is, he has the run support. He's facing Edwin Jackson who has been great for the Tigers all season. But, Jackson isn't as good as his numbers indicate and Chamberlain not as bad as his. And, the Yankees have a huge offensive advantage. Detroit scores 4.0 runs per game on the road while New York pounds in 5.7 per game here at home. On the +1.5 run line with odds between -135 and -190 this season, the Tigers are 11-15. They are 20-29 overall on the road vs. the run line this season. I like New York to get it done here.

The Rays are 5-0 thus far this season vs. the Royals. I like them to make it 6-0 today. Kansas City averages just 3.9 runs per game compared to 5.4 for Tampa Bay. The Rays excel vs. RHP (.355 OBP and 5.6 RPG). They have the starting pitching advantage and a huge bullpen advantage (3.47 ERA vs. 4.72), which has been the story in this series thus far. Matt Garza enters this game with a 3.73 ERA and that's bad news for the Royals. Over the past three seasons, KC is just 19-41 at home vs. a team with a starter whose ERA is 4.00 or less. Tampa Bay is 72-31 the past two seasons as a favorite of -125 to -175. The Royals are 9-33 this season following a loss. Tampa gets the call here.

Kansas City simply doesn't have the offense to stay in this one. The Royals are averaging 3.9 runs per game this season and 3.5 per game in day games. It's hard to imagine how they are going to score against Matt Garza and the Tampa Bay bullpen in this game. The Rays are 20-15 this season on the -1.5 run line when the odds are between +115 and +160. The past two seasons, they are 101-78 overall vs. the run line vs. right-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, the Royals this season are just 22-30 vs. the run line after a loss and 12-20 after back-to-back losses. Tampa gets the call on the run line here.

Results: 2-4

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-18-2009
The past has led many to see Johan Santana post at almost even money and become a no-brainer pick. That has changed with this Mets team that has been riddled with injuries, the latest Gary Sheffield, ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-17-2009
The Seattle Mariners certainly have a good one in Felix Hernandez. He has been in control over his last nine starts, but as good as he has been, Cleveland has reduced him from All-Star to ordinary as ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-16-2009
Second half action gets underway tonight with the Oakland A's hosting the Anaheim Angels. It has been a breakout season for Dallas Braden of the A's, who enters this one with a 2.45 ERA in his...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-12-2009
The New York Yankees have always had problems in LA facing the Angels. They are now 5-16 over their last 21 games here and the Angels have scored nearly seven runs a game over the 21 game stretch and ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-11-2009
The New York Yankees have never done well playing against the Angels on the road. In their last seven trips here the Yankees have not won a series, and are just 5-15. The Angels have had their way wit...