Baseball Handicapping - July 19, 2007
We went 2-1 yesterday another nice dog with on Cincinnati. We stand at 57% for the season as $100 bettors are up $5,320 on our picks. Three picks this afternoon.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Detroit -124 (risk 3 to win 2.4)
Detroit has won nine of eleven games and sends the red-hot Jeremy Bonderman to the mound for the sweep of Minnesota. Bonderman is 10-1 this season and a perfect 5-0 on the road. He's got a 3.50 ERA overall and a 1.96 ERA over his last three starts. In those three starts against Seattle, Boston and these Twins, he gave up just 5 runs and 4 walks while notching 21 strikeouts. Detroit averages 6.0 runs per game ont he road where they own a 31-17 mark. Minnesota gets only 4.5 per game at home. They are 14-19 vs. division opponents. The Tigers are 9-2 in their last eleven vs. winning teams and 12-4 on the road this season vs. division foes. They are also 14-3 this season as a road favorite of -125 to -175. Tremendous line value here on the Tigers.
Game: Arizona at Milwaukee (2:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Milwaukee -163 (risk 3 to win 1.8)
Milwaukee has won four of five while Arizona has dropped three of four. We were on the BNrewers on Tuesday when they got the win. We laid off them last night and they lost. Today we jump back on them as they send top prospect Yovani Gallardo to the mound, in place of the injured Ben Sheets. In six games, he's notched a 2.83 ERA. Not a lot of action, with just 29 innings, but he's perfomed admirably when given the chance. He's opposed by Livan Hernandez who has been average at best. He's got a 5.16 road ERA and 2-4 record. Neither of these two teams has much offense right now but Milwaukee has the better bats. Arizona is averaging just 3.7 per game over their last seven and on the season they get only 3.9 per game on the road. Milwaukee averaged 5.0 per game at home. They also have a killer bullpen (3.16 home ERA). Even after yesterday's loss, the Brewers are 18-3 at home this season vs. NL teams who bat .255 or worse (Arizona hits .248). They are also 14-2 this season at home after having won 4 of their last 5 games.
Game: San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs -159 (risk 3 to win 1.9)
Chicago has won five of their last six games and 17 of their last 22. San Francisco has won just one game in their last seven as Bonds continue to be a non-factor thanks to a slump and injury. He's now 0 for his last 21. The pitching matchup is similar to the overall matchup here - hot vs. not. Ted Lilly has a 9-4 record, a 3.00 home ERA and a 1.21 ERA in his last three starts. Matt Morris has a 4.45 road ERA and a 6.50 ERA over his last three starts. San Francisco just doesn't beat good teams, and they are terrible on the road. They are 17-30 vs. winning teams this year and 18-29 on the road. The last three seasons they are 6-23 revenging a loss in which they gave up 10+ runs.
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-18-2007
What can you say about Aaron Harang? He pitches on a bad team, yet when he toes the rubber, the Reds are 15-5! They are 24-50 in all other games. The Reds have won 10 of his last 12 road starts and no...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-17-2007
Arizona is ice cold right now having lost seven of their last nine. Milwaukee has won three in a row. Both pitchers are suspect. Yusmeiro Petit has only thrown 17 innings. Claudio Vargas has been pret...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-16-2007
Wow. The Cubs are rolling. They swept Houston, putting up 22 runs in the three game series. They have won 15 of 19 and own a 25-12 record since early June and they've won five of their last six se...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-15-2007
Jose Contreras was 9-0 to start the season last year. He has since been 9-19. The wheels have come off. He opened the season pitching fairly well, as he started 4-4, 3.71. He has gone down hill since....
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-14-2007
Oakland has hit rock bottom. The A's have now lost five straight, and are just 7-17 in their last 24. This team just can't hit and right now they have been at their worst. The A's have man...
