darrell,

2-2 yesterday. Four picks today...

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Game: Milwaukee at San Francisco (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on San Francisco -111 (risk 200 to win 180)

Matt Morris has been solid at home. He lasts nearly an inning per start longer here than on the road and his ERA is about a point better as well (3.81 at home). Doug Davis struggles on the road (6.32 ERA). Morris holds a 10-4 mark with a 3.06 ERA vs. the Brewers including a 6 inning 0 run performance in early May. This is Milwaukee's sixth straight road game and this season they are 4-15 after 5+ games away. Giants at home with Morris here provides great value at near-even money.

Sure Kevin Millwood is pitching well this year. He's 9-5 with a 4.66 ERA. But, he's gotten smacked around lately. Over his last three starts against San Francisco, Houston and Baltimore, he posted a 7.05 ERA. And, he's never beaten the Blue Jays in his career (6.86 ERA). Milwood is also just 2-12 in the second half of the season in his career vs. high scoring teams (5.2+ runs per game). Casey Jansen hasn't done very well over his last five starts but too much weight is being put on the starting pitchers here. Note that Toronto is 5-2 in their last seven games averaging 6.3 runs per game. They are 32-19 athome! Teams at +125 to -125 starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing against opponent with a cold starting pitcher (ERA over 7.00 over his last 5 starts) are just 32-66 (33%) over the last 5 seasons. Wrong team favored in this one and we'll take the home dog.

When you get Greg Maddux at home as an underdog, you need to look at that game. I did and I like the underdog Cubbies here. Now, I know he's facing Roger Clemens who has been great this year. At least ERA-wise he has. Problem is, he's just 1-3. He is going just 5.5 innings per start. So, this isn't the typical Roger Clemens. Houston has had to go the their bullpen early with him and that bullp;en is 5-9 on the season on the road. Chicago has struggled all season offensively (4.1 runs per game) but they've found their bats of late hitting .316 and scoring 6.3 runs per game over their last seven games. The Astros are a horrible 12-14 this season when favored by -150 or higher. They are 6-12 on the road as a favorite overall and the mighty Clemens is 6-13 on the road the past two seasons. Like Maddux and the hot Cubs bats here.

Tampa Bay is the third-worst road team in the league (17-35) and they've dropped 5 straight games. Minnesota has won 5 straight and they are the best home team in the leage (35-11). Hmmm. No wonder they are going for the sweep here. Back to Minnesota's play at home - they are 22-2 at the Metrodome since late May! They are also 21-4 overall as a favorite of -150 or higher this season. Brad Radke has been awesome at home (6-2 with 3.80 ERA) and has been improving (2.84 ERA over his last three starts). The Twins are 7-0 with him starting a night game this year. Jae Seo is 1-3 with a 4.99 ERA on the road. Minneosta is 12-5 vs. the D-Rays overall over the past three seasons. Tampa manages 4.1 runs per game on the road this season and they're averaging 2.6 per game over their last seven. Minnesota pounds in 5.8 per game at home this year. Minnesota's bullpen is 9-1 wiht a 2.50 ERA at home while Tampa's is 5-9 with a 4.32 road ERA. Twinkies here in a game in which I feel we should be laying higher than 2-to-1 odds but are not.