Baseball Handicapping - July 18, 2008

We nailed our 5-unit pick on St. Louis yesterday to finish 1-2. Five MLB plays today.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: New York Mets at Cincinnati (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Mets -112 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Hot teams like the Mets find ways to win. Last night the Mets plated four runs in the ninth to grab their 10th straight win, so getting a team on fire at virtually even odds always shows value. After a few shaky starts, John Maine has become the pitcher he was last season, and the Mets have found the win column in four of his last five, also winning three of his last four road starts. Bronson Arroyo has had a forgettable season. He brings a nearly six ERA into this game and the Mets are a red-hot on offense right now. The Mets are averaging 6.2 runs a game over their last 10, and the pitching has been superb, recording four shutouts. You have to ride the Mets at these odds.

The Rangers have feasted against RHP all season to the tune of 39-28, a full 11 games over the .500 mark. The offense has been slowed by LHP however, where they have been a not-so successful 11-18, or seven games below .500, and an even worse 4-10 on the road. One of the losses was to Perkins, the pitcher on the hill for the Twins tonight. Probably the most significant stat of all is the fact that in the 10 losses on the road, the Rangers lost all 10 games by two runs or more. The Rangers are all about offense and LHP has neutralized it, while their pitching has left a bit to be desired, including tonight's starter, Kevin Millwood who enters with an ERA of over five. The Twins should make that 11 by two runs or more.

The Royals are 17-11 over their last 28 and have won three of four. You have to consider them a better team with Greinke on the hill. Greinke has made 19 starts and in 15 of them has allowed three runs or less. The Royals have been an 11-8 team in his starts, and have won four of his last five. It has been a trying year to this point for Mark Buehrle, as he has led the Sox to just an 8-11 record in his 19 starts. After going on a tear, the White Sox have won just once in their last four, and we like the value in the Royals with Greinke on the hill.

The Dodgers have not exactly been a force as a favorite on the road where they have logged an 8-10 record. Heroki Kuroda has saved his best starts for LA where the Dodgers are 5-3. The road has been a different story where the Dodgers have been just 3-6 dropping four of his last five starts. Doug Davis has really feasted against the Dodgers where he owns a career 1.33 ERA in 41 innings against them. We like the home dog in this one.

Cleveland finally won some games, but it took a team colder than them to do it. They did it against the Rays who have now dropped seven straight. Aaron Laffey completed May with a 1.59 ERA, but has since pitched to a five ERA, and the Tribe has lost four of his last five starts. Felix Hernandez has allowed just 24 hits in his last 38 innings pitched, while striking out 39, and has demonstrated the stuff he was credited with when he first arrived in the bigs. Seattle has now won five of his last six starts, and we like them to win big here. We like the Mariners on the runline. Hernandez has been 6-3 in his wins vs. the runline, while Laffey is yet to cover a runline on the road in games he has lost. Favorable situation for the M's to win one big.

Results: 2-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• View our updated baseball blog.
• Updated today: Baseball lines.
• Don't forget to read our baseball ATS standings here.
• Hop over to our 2008 MLB baseball prior picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2008 baseball handicapping preivew.
• Here we show our baseball betting approach.
• Don't forget to visit our baseball predictions.
• Updated today: sports betting mlb.
• Check out our updated Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• View MLB previous picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-17-2008
While Jake Peavy remains one of the top pitchers in baseball, the Padres remain one of the worst teams. They had one good run during the first half, which even bad teams do, going 12-5. Before and aft...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-13-2008
Seattle is just that bad. We aren't even at the All-Star break and they are already 19 games out of first in their division, they own the worst record in the AL, and they are 17-31 away from ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-12-2008
The Phillies were a hot team then ran cold, but now have won three straight and are back on track. The Phillies have been tough all season long against LHP, and have won 11 of their last 15 at home ag...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-11-2008
The Cubs were shelled for seven home runs and 12 overall runs last night. Overall, 19 runs were scored. Often after games like that, we see the next game result in a much lower tally and that'...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-10-2008
The Cubs go for the sweep behind the arm of Ted Lilly, who has not lost since June 4th. We like their chances at a big win. Opposing Lilly is Bronson Arroyo who has struggled all season, posting a 6-7...