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Four MLB picks tonight...

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Good luck today...

Game: Seattle at New York Yankees (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on New York Yankees -160 (risk 200 to win 126)

Think this is a big game for Ponson? In what is likely his last shot, he desparately wants a good showing for his new team. He'll bring all he's got. New York is on fire right now as they have Boston in their sights. They've won eight of nine scoring almost 7 runs per game over that stretch. Joel Pineiro is 6-8 on the year with a 5.94 ERA (9.36 ERA over his last three starts). He's 11-27 as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the past two seasons. Seattle is 18-44 on the road over the past three seasons when facing high scoring teams that score 5.2+ runs per game. New York has won six of the last seven in this matchup here at home. Like them to make it 7 of 8 tonight.

Big line but I'm taking it. Boston, with New York on their heels, knows they cannot afford to lose to the lowly KC Royals at home. With Jon Lester on the mound (4-0, 2.89 ERA), they should easily get the win. The Royals go with Brandon Duckworth who is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA. After a nice little run, KC has slipped back into horrible play as they have lost six of their last seven. On the road, they are 13-37 losing by an average of 2.3 runs per game. Over the past two seasons on the road, when facing a team that scores 5.2+ runs per game, the Royals are 4-30. The Red Sox at home against right handers are nearly unbeatable. Boston is 29-4 at home the last two seasons vs. teams that are outscored by opponents by 1/2 or more per game. And, while this is a huge line, consider that Boston is 25-2 the last three seasons as a home favorite of -250 to -330 over the past three seasons. Red Sox here.

Dontrelle Willis had a rough go of things during May. But since then in June and July, he's posted a 5-1 mark with a 2.54 ERA. He's happy to see his opponent tonight as he's 9-3 vs. the Nationals with a 3.03 ERA. Huge starter advtange and big bullpen advantage for the Marlins here too (3.61 home ERA vs. Florida's 4.87 road ERA). Washington is just 1-6 over their last seven games as they are allowing 5.7 runs per game. Willis here.

The All-Star break was not good for the Dodgers. Entering it having won 5 of 7, they've lost five straight since then. Arizona meanwhile has won six of seven games. At home, the D-Backs score 5.2 runs per game and with their hot bats of late (6.4 per game over their last seven), and LA's poor defense of late (5.9 per game allowed over their last seven), I see Arizona putting up 5+ tonight. And with LA's current offensive slump (2.7 per game over last seven), they won't be able to keep up. D-Backs here.