Baseball Handicapping - July 17, 2009

We dropped our two picks last night, but we start the weekend off with a bang as we roll out picks in seven MLB games today. Over the last five weeks, our MLB picks are 70-52 for +45.7 units. Today's picks include two 4-unit plays.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	42-27 last 69 picks	61%	+$3910
MLB	70-52 last 122 picks	57%	+$4570
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$28260

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Seattle at Cleveland (6:50 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cleveland +140 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.8)

The Seattle Mariners certainly have a good one in Felix Hernandez. He has been in control over his last nine starts, but as good as he has been, Cleveland has reduced him from All-Star to ordinary as he has a nearly four ERA against them in his lifetime appearances against the Tribe. The Mariners are in their least-favorable spot, as they are 14-37 in their last 51 on the road against a team with a losing record. The Tribe has risen to the occasion as a home dog of +110 to +150, where they are an amazing 12-4 over their last 16, as well as 41-20 with a total set in this range. I'm gonna go with the Tribe here as a live dog.

The Mariners' offense has been one of the least effective in baseball and weigh in at fewer than four runs per game on the road against righthanders. The Indians have been able to do one thing well, and that is score some runs. The Tribe have been a dangerous dog in this range as well as in low-total games, yielding a huge advantage when converted to the runline. I'm going with them on the runline here.

The Washington Nationals will look for answers as the second half gets underway. One such answer is Craig Stammen who has really pitched well as he begins to get comfortable and gain confidence. Stammen has a 2.53 ERA in his last three outings, and has averaged better than seven innings per start during the stretch. The Cubs have been a much less team than expected and have not gotten it done on the road. Neither has Zambrano as the Cubs are just 1-4 in his last five road starts, and the Cubs are just 2-5 in his last seven road starts. I'm riding with the Nationals in this one.

I like Nationals on the runline. Stammen has pitched very well and the Cubs have struggled on the road, even with Zambrano on the hill. In Zambrano's last eight road starts, the Cubs would be 2-6 facing a -1.5 runline, so the value is certainly there for the Nats in this one, and I will make Washington a runline play.

There is a known and an unknown about Clay Buchholz, who will get the ball for the Red Sox tonight. He has great stuff and displayed it well in '07 when he threw a no-hitter in his second career start. He seemed to be a cinch top of the rotation starter, but in '08 he pitched to a 2-9 record with a 6.75 ERA. He has some great numbers at AAA Pawtucket, but he had virtually equal numbers last year and was hit hard at the big league level. So he has failed more than succeeded here. Ricky Romero has succeeded when he has gotten the ball for the Jays. He has pitched to a 2.37 ERA since June 1, covering eight starts with the Jays posting a 6-2 mark in the process. This is basically even odds with one known quantity against another that is unknown, so I'll back the Jays here.

The San Francisco Giants have certainly opened some eyes this season. They have done a lot of it with their play at home where they are 31-15 on the season, but have struugled to a mediocre 18-24 mark on the road. Tim Lincecum started the All-Star game, so he will not be in his usual rythm between starts. Lincecum has had one start against the Pirates in his career, a losing one. Paul Maholm has been outstanding for the Pirates as he has won two straight decisions, and has been electric at home where he has pitched to a 2.96 ERA covering seven starts. He also has good numbers vs. the Giants as he brings a 3.00 career ERA against them. The Pirates will be facing the Giants for the first time this season, and they swept them here a year ago in a three-game set, and I look for them to win or be in this one at the least and will play them on the runline.

There is no question that the Texas Rangers are the biggest surprise this season as they are the top baseball team in games being played to the UNDERS. The Rangers have always been known for a big offense, but have displayed little of that this season as the pitching has been much better than expected. That perception puts this total at 11, as if this was a Rangers' team from the past, not one playing under at the rate of 61.2% of all their games, and 70.5% of their last 34. Minnesota has not hit well on the road and they have turned in unders at even a higher rate than the Rangers, coming into this one with a 71.8% mark to the UNDER in all their road games on the season. It is rare to find a total reserved for high-octane expectations at the 11 mark, with two teams that have displayed exactly the opposite. I'm going with the UNDER here.

The Tampa Bay Rays seemed to begin the season with a hangover after so much unexpected success a year ago. They are 25-14 over their last 39 games, and back on track. James Shields will be given the ball tonight as he has pitched to a solid 3.42 ERA. Shileds has not allowed more than four runs in any of his last 12 starts. So one way or the other, the Rays always manage to be in the game when he starts. The Royals have sure had their problems of late as they are just 8-17 over their last 25 games, and have now dropped five of their last six, and are just 4-9 in their last 13 at home as well. Brian Bannister has pitched well enough to win for most teams, but the Royals offense is really lacking. And despite a good ERA, the Royals have gone just 2-7 over his last nine starts on the season. I'm going with the Rays in this one.

The A's thought Trevor Cahill was going to pitch well, but he has struggled bigtime of late, pitching to an 11.37 ERA in his last three starts. What gets shortsided here, is the fact that he had a 3.68 ERA through 14 starts, so the ability and the body of work is still much more positive than the last three. He definetly is not alone in recent struggles as Joe Saunders has been really struggling, pitching to an 11.57 ERA over his last three. The Angels have won just once in his last five road starts. Oakland has displayed an offense that has produced less than four runs per game on the road, but a much better 4.5 at home. The bleeding doesn't stop behind Joe Saunders as the Angels' bullpen is ranked No. 28 with a 5.08 ERA and that should be the difference maker here. I'm going with the A's.

Results: 4-5

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-16-2009
Second half action gets underway tonight with the Oakland A's hosting the Anaheim Angels. It has been a breakout season for Dallas Braden of the A's, who enters this one with a 2.45 ERA in his...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-12-2009
The New York Yankees have always had problems in LA facing the Angels. They are now 5-16 over their last 21 games here and the Angels have scored nearly seven runs a game over the 21 game stretch and ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-11-2009
The New York Yankees have never done well playing against the Angels on the road. In their last seven trips here the Yankees have not won a series, and are just 5-15. The Angels have had their way wit...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-10-2009
This is a great pitching matchup, and arguably between the two hottest pitchers in baseball. The D-Backs send Dan Haren to the mound with his league-leading ERA. Haren is a proven commodity that when ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-09-2009
The Milwaukee Brewers have a similar dilemma as the Yankees did with Chien Ming Wang. It is about Manny Parra who is in a fog right now. He began the season poorly, went through three starts where he ...