Free Mlb Picks - July 17, 2008

The All-Star break couldn't have come at a better time for us as we have been slumping all the way through July. Our huge gains in June gut a big chunk removed, but we remain +43.8 units over the past two months. We spent a lot of time over the three-day break analyzing successes and failures and tweaking things. We are very eager to get things rolling again and today we start off with three picks...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: San Diego at St. Louis (8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on St. Louis -107 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 4.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 7.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

While Jake Peavy remains one of the top pitchers in baseball, the Padres remain one of the worst teams. They had one good run during the first half, which even bad teams do, going 12-5. Before and after that run they went 25-53, good for a winning percentage of just .321. Over 162 games that projects out to 110 losses. It takes more than a good pitcher for a bad team to win and Peavy is a case in point, as the Padres are just 4-8 over his last 12 starts. While he has dominated at home, Peavy has been less than average on the road where he has pitched to a 4.45 ERA. Kyle Lohse has been the steal of the year, having compiled an 11-2 mark for the Cards. They have won 10 of his last 11 starts. The Cards are our choice here. A full 60% of Lohse's pitched games have exceeded this total and Peavy is allowing 4.5 on the road. He is backed by a pen that has served up 2.7 additional runs per game. The Pads are 11-2 OVER on the road the past three seasons vs. winning teams when starting Peavy. We will also play the OVER here.

Lots of people are on the Rockies in this one given their big disparity between home and away play. But, we like the Pirates here at this price. Paul Maholm has a winning record and has posted a 4-0 mark with a 2.68 ERA over his last eight starts. The Rockies offense ended the first-half on a terrible note and we just don't see them coming out here and all of a sudden blowing the doors off things - not against Maholm. Yes, Colorado is decent at home, where they score 5.3 runs per game. But, the Pirates' offense is every bit as good, scoring the same 5.3 per game on the road. This season the Rockies are 8-20 vs. teams that average 4.8+ runs per game. They are also 2-12 vs. starting pitchers with an ERA in the 3.5 to 4.2 range.

Results: 1-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• View our mlb picks blog here.
• Take a look at our Baseball odds and lines here.
• Don't forget to read our mlb against-the-spread records here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2008 MLB baseball prior picks results.
• Check out 2008 season MLB baseball handicapping preview here.
• Take a look at our MLB betting approach here.
• Don't forget to read our baseball picks here.
• Take a look at our sports betting baseball here.
• Read our Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• Don't forget to read our baseball prior predictions here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-13-2008
Seattle is just that bad. We aren't even at the All-Star break and they are already 19 games out of first in their division, they own the worst record in the AL, and they are 17-31 away from ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-12-2008
The Phillies were a hot team then ran cold, but now have won three straight and are back on track. The Phillies have been tough all season long against LHP, and have won 11 of their last 15 at home ag...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-11-2008
The Cubs were shelled for seven home runs and 12 overall runs last night. Overall, 19 runs were scored. Often after games like that, we see the next game result in a much lower tally and that'...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-10-2008
The Cubs go for the sweep behind the arm of Ted Lilly, who has not lost since June 4th. We like their chances at a big win. Opposing Lilly is Bronson Arroyo who has struggled all season, posting a 6-7...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-09-2008
What a difference a year makes, as the Indians were riding high last year all the way into October. Flash forward one year and here we are before the All-Star break and C.C. Sabathia has already been ...