Baseball Pick - July 16, 2007

After back-to-back winning days, we dropped two of three yesterday. We look to get back to winning today with three picks...

WUNDERDOG 2007 RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	168-127 last 295 picks	57%	+$4490
NFL	229-191 last season	55%	+$1890
TOTAL			+$6380

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs -134 (risk 3 to win 2.2)

Wow. The Cubs are rolling. They swept Houston, putting up 22 runs in the three game series. They have won 15 of 19 and own a 25-12 record since early June and they've won five of their last six series. Barry Bonds is, um, not hot. He's off an 0-for-5 performance and hasn't gotten a hit in 20 at bats - worst ever streak in his career. Is the pressure of the pending record break weighing on him? It appears to be. The Giants have lost four straight games. San Francisco has been bottom-feeders this year. While 22-23 vs. losing teams, they are just 16-28 vs. winning teams. Worse for them, they are facing a lefty today. Versus southpaws, they are getting just 4.1 runs per game. Chicago averages 5.0 per game vs. righties and right now they are hitting everythinhg. Very low line here considering the state of these two ball clubs.

Cincinnati can't possibly win this one on the road, can they? Yes they can! Atlanta starts Kyle Davies who is 4-7 on the year with a 5.55 ERA. At home, he's 1-3 in seven starts. AAA baller Bobby Livingtson makes his third start of the year for the Reds. He's 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and has shown signs of being a solid pitcher. He's too young to know Cincy isn't supposed to win on the road and he's going to be laying it on the line here. The Reds lost a series to the Mets, dropping three of four. But, they kept with New York scoring 13 runs to NY's 14. Prior to that, they swept Arizona and took two of three from San Francisco. The Reds are playing pretty good baseball right now. So is Atlanta but this is a good spot for them to get caught napping a bit. Cincinanti's probelms on the road this season have been offense, not defense. They allow just 4.6 per game away from home but score only 4.2 per game. This is a good matchup for them as Atlanta scores just 4.1 per game at home (and 4.1 vs. lefties like Livingtson). We expect a very close game and think Cincinnati pulls it off.

Brad Penny had a bad start his last outing but that was due to a blister he developed on his pitching hand. He has had 11 days to heal and we expect him to be back in All-Star form. The Dodgers are 14-4 in his starts. Thirteen of those starts resulted in the opponent scoring 1 run or less. Penny has also had great success vs. the current Philadelphia roster, as there is not a single player hitting over .250, and collectively just .224. The Dodgers are a hot team right now having won four straight and they have dominated lefties. The Dodgers are 17-8 vs. LHP, as a team hitting .282. Jamie Moyer may be showing his age. He completed April with a 2.65 ERA and since has pitched to a 5.18 ERA. He has gotten progressively worse. His last three starts have resulted in three Philly losses and his ERA has jumped to 6+ in those starts. Like the Dodgers here.

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-15-2007
Jose Contreras was 9-0 to start the season last year. He has since been 9-19. The wheels have come off. He opened the season pitching fairly well, as he started 4-4, 3.71. He has gone down hill since....

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-14-2007
Oakland has hit rock bottom. The A's have now lost five straight, and are just 7-17 in their last 24. This team just can't hit and right now they have been at their worst. The A's have man...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-13-2007
Jake Westbrook hasn't had much success on the road but at home he has a 3.05 ERA. He's licking his chops today, facing Kansas City. The Royals are 18-22 on the road where they score just 4.1 r...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-12-2007
The Blue Jays have a 49-18, 73.1% record whenever Roy Halladay takes the mound. It is unusual to see him as an underdog, as since the 2005 season, this will be just the fifth time. The Jays are 4-0 in...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-08-2007
Minnesota has won six of their last eleven and three of their last five. Chicago has dropped four of their last seven. After allowing 32 runs to Minnesota in a Friday doubleheader, Chicago kept the Tw...