Mlb Game Predictions - July 15, 2007

Another 2-1 winning day yesterday. Today we have three plays with two 4-unit selections including one play on the runline in the Texas vs. LA Angels game.

MLB picks are winning at 57% (167-125) for +48 units since the start of the season.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (1:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Baltimore +104 (risk 4 to win 4.2)

Jose Contreras was 9-0 to start the season last year. He has since been 9-19. The wheels have come off. He opened the season pitching fairly well, as he started 4-4, 3.71. He has gone down hill since. Contreras numbers since have been 1-6 and a 7.80 ERA. He has allowed 65 hits in his last 45 innings. He has a long history of struggles against left-handed hitters, and he could face a lineup stacked with eight of them today. On the season, Contreras has allowed a .311 average against them. The Orioles have actually played much better as they have been 11-9 in their last 20, not a bad stretch for a team 11 games below .500. Garrett Olsen gets the start for the O's and he has one thing going for him. He is a LHP, and the White Sox are anemic against them, as they have posted a 9-17 record on the season. The Sox pitching has allowed 67 runs in their last nine games, or over seven a game, and the pen coughed it up last night once again. Birds have the value here.

Note that this is a run line selection. Here is a great opportunity to play teams that are showing signs of heading back to what they are. The Angels hit a bit of a soft spot, but now are showing signs of going on another run. The Rangers had played over their head for a bit, and now seem to be reverting back to the team that is heading for 100 losses. McCarthy has been 2-6 on the road, while Weaver after an 11-2 rookie season is back in form for the Angels. He beats the -1.5 run line in seven of his eight wins. The Angels smell blood and will lay a pasting on the Rangers to get the sweep. We'll back them to win by 2+ runs here on the run line.

Justin Verlander against Jeff Weaver, looks like a complete mismatch. Not so fast. The best pitcher over the last month has been Weaver. Weaver has done a complete about face. He was on the verge of getting released, pitching to a 14+ ERA, and then the transformation. Weaver has a 1.70 ERA over his last six starts, and the Mariners have been 5-1 in those games. In his last four starts Verlander has been pitching to a pedestrian 4.32 ERA. The M's are now 32-16 over their last 48 games, and they are for real. They have also been unbeatable at home, going 17-5. This game figures to go to the bullpen close, and the M's have the best closer in baseball in Putz, and this is just too much value. A team with the hottest pitcher in baseball on the hill, at home where they have been lights out, as a dog.

Results: 1-2

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-14-2007
Oakland has hit rock bottom. The A's have now lost five straight, and are just 7-17 in their last 24. This team just can't hit and right now they have been at their worst. The A's have man...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-13-2007
Jake Westbrook hasn't had much success on the road but at home he has a 3.05 ERA. He's licking his chops today, facing Kansas City. The Royals are 18-22 on the road where they score just 4.1 r...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-12-2007
The Blue Jays have a 49-18, 73.1% record whenever Roy Halladay takes the mound. It is unusual to see him as an underdog, as since the 2005 season, this will be just the fifth time. The Jays are 4-0 in...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-08-2007
Minnesota has won six of their last eleven and three of their last five. Chicago has dropped four of their last seven. After allowing 32 runs to Minnesota in a Friday doubleheader, Chicago kept the Tw...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-07-2007
Washington is at or near the bottom of the league in almost every statistical category. They are currently in a deep slump offensively. They have produced three runs or less in 12 of their last 13 gam...