Baseball Handicapping - July 13, 2008

We dropped seven units last night. Today we have four picks...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Seattle at Kansas City (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City -119 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)

Seattle is just that bad. We aren't even at the All-Star break and they are already 19 games out of first in their division, they own the worst record in the AL, and they are 17-31 away from home this season. They start Carlos Silva who is just 4-11 on the season (2-6 on the road). He's als 2-12 as an underdog of +100 to +125 the past two seasons. The Marniners average just 3.8 runs per game vs. RHP and over their last seven games the M's are getting a paltry 2.4 per game. They can't even beat losing teams (like KC) as Seattle is just 14-30 vs. sub-.500 teams this season. Meanwhile, KC does beat the bad teams as they are 14-7 vs. teams that are outscored by their competition by 0.5+ runs per game. This is a very winnable game for KC and we'll back them.

Ryan Dempster had a terrible outing four games back at the White Sox but then helped the Cubs beat these Giants and followed that performance up with a one-run gem vs. Harang and the Reds. On the season, Dempster has a 2.58 ERA at home to go with a perfect 10-0 record. Yes, Lincecum is making waves and owns an impressive 10-2 mark himself, but the point is, Dempster is pitching every bit as good. So, it comes down to location and offense here. The Cubs are 37-11 here at home, scoring 6.4 runs per game. They hit a bit of an offensive slump a few weeks back but they are htting the ball well again. The Giants only score 4.1 per game and they are 10-25 in day games. Chicago is 13-2 this season as a home favorite and they a perfect 11-0 with Dempster on the hill. We'll back the Cubs here.

The Braves are 14-32 on the road averaging 3.7 runs per game. They are getting 3.6 per game overall vs. LHP and 3.1 per game over their last seven games. Yet, we get to fade them here at even-money. Sure, San Diego has their own issues, especially on offense, but Atlanta is a team they can certainly beat at home. Randy Wolf is 5-3 here with a 2.54 ERA. The Braves are 8-19 this season on the road at -125 to +125 and 3-11 in road day games. They are also 4-14 on the road off a win. We'll fade Atlanta here.

The Marlins have won four in a row and six of their last seven games to climb to within one game of first place. Three of those wins have come at the expense of the Dodgers who are at risk of getting swept at home. They look to Chad Billingsley to stop the bleeding but we think Florida has a shot here. Billingsley is just 4-4 at home this year and right now this team isn't providing much in the way of run support. LA is averaging just 3.7 runs per game at home this season and 3.0 per game overall over their last seven. In day games the Dodgers are just 13-18 while Florida is 13-9. One reason for Florida's success thus far in this series is this is a godo matchup for them. They are now 8-2 this season vs. low power teams (those averaging under 0.8 home runs per game). Meanwhile, LA is just 5-12 vs. solid-powered teams like Florida (those averaging 1.25+ home runs per game). Billingsley is 0-6 this season vs. teams scoring over 4.7 runs per game and we like the Marlins at this price.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Read our mlb blog here.
• View our updated Baseball odds.
• Don't forget to read our MLB ATS standings here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2008 baseball season prior picks.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 baseball betting preivew here.
• Don't forget to read our MLB baseball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Here we show our baseball predictions.
• Read our baseball sports book here.
• View our Baseball Game Preview here.
• Don't forget to visit our MLB previous picks.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-12-2008
The Phillies were a hot team then ran cold, but now have won three straight and are back on track. The Phillies have been tough all season long against LHP, and have won 11 of their last 15 at home ag...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-11-2008
The Cubs were shelled for seven home runs and 12 overall runs last night. Overall, 19 runs were scored. Often after games like that, we see the next game result in a much lower tally and that'...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-10-2008
The Cubs go for the sweep behind the arm of Ted Lilly, who has not lost since June 4th. We like their chances at a big win. Opposing Lilly is Bronson Arroyo who has struggled all season, posting a 6-7...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-09-2008
What a difference a year makes, as the Indians were riding high last year all the way into October. Flash forward one year and here we are before the All-Star break and C.C. Sabathia has already been ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-08-2008
This is a St. Louis team that has been a lot more competitive than most thought at the beginning of the year. They are 10 games over .500 and their road play has been superb of late as they are 15-9 o...