Baseball Pick - July 13, 2007
Dropped both dog picks last night. Tonight we turn to a couple of favorites and one underdog...
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Kansas City at Cleveland (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland -180 (risk 3 to win 1.7)
Jake Westbrook hasn't had much success on the road but at home he has a 3.05 ERA. He's licking his chops today, facing Kansas City. The Royals are 18-22 on the road where they score just 4.1 runs per game on .248 hitting. Cleveland averages 6.0 runs per game at home where they have amassed a 31-12 record. That includes a 28-9 mark as a home favorite. The Indians are coming off a rare shutout loss and should be focused here. Meanwhile, Kansas City is coming off a 12-run performance before the All-Star break. Don't be fooled by those last two games, Cleveland is a great home team and KC is a weak road team. Take the favorite.
Game: St. Louis at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Philadelphia -135 (risk 2 to win 1.5)
Both of these teams have been struggling of late. But we like Philly's chances a lot here at home starting Moyer, a southpaw. The Cards are horrendous vs. lefties, going 12-16 and scoring just 3.8 per game. Moyer isn't his old self this year but he's still been decent, posting a 4.43 ERA and 7-7 record. The same can't be said for Kip Wells who has a 6.61 ERA in 15 starts. The Cardinals are 2-13 with him starting this year. On the road he's 1-7 with a 7.69 ERA. In his last three starts he has lasted just 3.8 innings per start and gotten hammered. THe past two seasons, with him starting, his team has gone 2-17 vs. NL teams that score 5.8+ runs per game. Philadelphia pounds in 5.5 runs per game vs. righties. And, the Phils are 17-4 the past two seasons vs. NL starters with an ERA over 6.20.
Game: Texas at Los Angeles Angels (10:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Texas +187 (risk 2 to win 3.7)
Does Jared Weaver deserve this line? Sure he has a good ERA (3.67). But, he's only 6-5 and he's actually been worse at home (2-2 with 4.09 ERA) at home than on the road. And, he's lost his last two starts. Kevin Milwood hasn't been as good as Weaver overall but he's been hot of late, winning his last two starts giving up just 3 runs in 14 innnings. One of those wins was against the Angels earlier this month. Texas has been the hotter team. They have won six of nine and fifteen of their last twenty eight while LA has dropped five of their last eight and they've been outscored 44-75 over their last twelve games. The Angels are just 15-20 this season vs. AL teams that hit .260 or worse. There is a ton of line value in this one and as such, we'll back the underdog.
Results: 2-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-12-2007
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-07-2007
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-06-2007
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-05-2007
You won't find many teams under .500 as we approach the All-Star break with their worst pitcher on the mound favored by this much. That is, unless your the NY Yankees. Kei Igawa has not been anyth...
