Baseball Predictions - July 12, 2008

Yesterday we collected +4.6 uits as our MLB picks finished 3-1. Today we return to the diamond with three more plays.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Arizona at Philadelphia (3:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia -1.5 runs +160 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.8)

The Phillies were a hot team then ran cold, but now have won three straight and are back on track. The Phillies have been tough all season long against LHP, and have won 11 of their last 15 at home against southpaws. The only thing that keeps Arizona in the hunt is that the NL West has been so mediocre. The D-Backs have trouble staying in games on the road, and when they face .500+ teams on the road they are a woeful 4-16! Randy Johnson is a fraction of what he once was, as the D-Backs have just one road win to show for his seven starts. With an abysmal “Unit” on the hill for the D-Backs plus the way the Phillies’ lineup has pounded LHP, especially at home, Phillies get a comfortable win in this one.

The White Sox have everyone's attention sitting atop the AL Central at 14 games over .500. That margin has been mostly generated by their recent 20-4 run at home. The problem is that within that run have come 16 road games which have shown them winning just four of 16 games, and two of those four wins by a single run. That puts the value on the Rangers runline here as the Sox have managed just a 2-14 mark in this road situation over their last 16, and have now dropped back-to-back road games. This Texas offense has been lethal at home and is getting better. They have produced 162 runs in their last 24 home games or 6.75 runs a game, so getting them at +1.5 runs against a team struggling on the road is where the value lies, so we'll take the Rangers on the runline.

This might be reality check time for Edinson Volquez as the innings begin to mount. The 110 innings he has thrown is more than he has thrown in the big leagues for his career and is rapidly approaching his minor-league high of 120. He has also been lasting less, as he completed six innings or more in 12 of 13 starts, but reached the six-inning mark just once in his last three. Seth McClung was converted from the pen to a starter, and has allowed two runs or less in seven of his nine starts. The Brewers are 23-10 in their last 33 at home, and this is a valued price against a Cincinnati team that has not been good on the road, with a pitcher showing signs of slowing down and pitching off of past value.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Check out blog baseball picks here.
• View Baseball odds here.
• Take a look at our baseball ATS recrds here.
• Check out 2008 MLB baseball prior picks season results here.
• Read our 2008 MLB handicapping preview here.
• Updated today: MLB baseball sports handicapping philosophy.
• Don't forget to visit our mlb baseball handicapping.
• Don't forget to visit our sports betting baseball.
• Updated today: MLB Game-of-Day-Preview.
• View MLB picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-11-2008
The Cubs were shelled for seven home runs and 12 overall runs last night. Overall, 19 runs were scored. Often after games like that, we see the next game result in a much lower tally and that'...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-10-2008
The Cubs go for the sweep behind the arm of Ted Lilly, who has not lost since June 4th. We like their chances at a big win. Opposing Lilly is Bronson Arroyo who has struggled all season, posting a 6-7...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-09-2008
What a difference a year makes, as the Indians were riding high last year all the way into October. Flash forward one year and here we are before the All-Star break and C.C. Sabathia has already been ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-08-2008
This is a St. Louis team that has been a lot more competitive than most thought at the beginning of the year. They are 10 games over .500 and their road play has been superb of late as they are 15-9 o...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-07-2008
This line is held down by the fact that the Rockies have won five of six. The problem is that all of those games were at home where the Rox have been a better than good team in their last 21...