Free Mlb Predictions - July 11, 2008

We split our four picks yesterday to go 2-2 for a thin loss. Today we are back with four MLB selections including a 4-unit pick.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 12 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)

The Cubs were shelled for seven home runs and 12 overall runs last night. Overall, 19 runs were scored. Often after games like that, we see the next game result in a much lower tally and that's one reason we like the UNDER here. At 12, it's asking a whole heckuva lot to get this game to go OVER. This is especially true when you consider that the Giants offense is averaging 4.0 runs per game on the season and they managed just three total runs in their series against the Mets. Neither of these pitchers is that awful, as both have ERAs in the mid 4's. We'll take the UNDER on this huge total this afternoon.

Arizona has been a horrible road team the entire year, but when they face teams with a winning record on the road, they are even worse. When facing a .500+ team on the road, the D-Backs are a depressing 5-18. Philadelphia off of their worst stint of the season at 6-13, has now won two straight and has righted the ship. This two-game run is also after a 1-9, ten-game home stretch, and good teams don't continue to do that at home. The Phillies are 13-5 when Kyle Kendrick takes the mound, and have been eating up LHP to the tune of a 20-12 record. We see them winning this one easily at home.

Everyone has wondered what had happened to this Mets team ever since their collapse last September. This season didn't look much better, but finally the talent on this team is showing what it can do. The Mets have now won six straight and are knocking on the door to the NL East lead. Oliver Perez won 15 games last year, and he has shown signs of regaining that form. Perez has had problems with control, but he has ironed them out. After walking 43 in his first 60 innings, Perez has now issued just 11 free passes over his last 37.1 innings. Colorado is just 8-28 over their last 36 games on the road. We like the value on this hot Mets team at home.

The White Sox have been a terror in their own park where they have now gone 20-4 over their last 24 games. But when on the road they have been less than mediocre where they are just 4-11 in their last 15. Two of those wins have come by just a single run meaning they are just 2-13 if faced with a -1.5 runline over their last 15. Texas has now been 19-12 in their last 31 at home and is a tough team to beat in Arlington. When coming off a game where a team had 17+ hits, playing at home and starting a pitcher with a 7.50 ERA over his last three starts, teams have been 51-16 to the +1.5 runline and we think Texas is worthy of the choice here.

Results: 3-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our baseball picks blog here.
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• View 2008 MLB season preview here.
• Read our Baseball handicapping philosophy here.
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• View our mlb sportsbook reviews here.
• Updated today: MLB Baseball Game Preview.
• Read our baseball prior picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-10-2008
The Cubs go for the sweep behind the arm of Ted Lilly, who has not lost since June 4th. We like their chances at a big win. Opposing Lilly is Bronson Arroyo who has struggled all season, posting a 6-7...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-09-2008
What a difference a year makes, as the Indians were riding high last year all the way into October. Flash forward one year and here we are before the All-Star break and C.C. Sabathia has already been ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-08-2008
This is a St. Louis team that has been a lot more competitive than most thought at the beginning of the year. They are 10 games over .500 and their road play has been superb of late as they are 15-9 o...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-07-2008
This line is held down by the fact that the Rockies have won five of six. The problem is that all of those games were at home where the Rox have been a better than good team in their last 21...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-06-2008
Minnesota is red hot while Cleveland is ice cold. The Twins have won 17 of their last 20 while the Indians have lost 13 of 17. What's interesting is that Minnesota has been winning with offense (n...