Sports Pick Mlb - July 10, 2008

We split our picks 2-2 yesterday and today we look to rebound with four MLB plays. We are +57.4 units the past two months on the bases.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (2:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Chicago Cubs -1.5 runs +112 (runline) (risk 2 to win 2.2)

The Cubs go for the sweep behind the arm of Ted Lilly, who has not lost since June 4th. We like their chances at a big win. Opposing Lilly is Bronson Arroyo who has struggled all season, posting a 6-7 mark with a 5.82 ERA. Lilly will have success against a Reds club that is averaging just 4.1 runs per game on the road, 3.9 per game vs. division opponents and 3.7 per game over their last seven games overall. Conversely, the Cubs average 6.4 per game at home and 5.9 vs. division foes. The REds are 17-31 vs. the run line this season after a loss and 16-23 after two sraight road games. The Cubs are 30-24 this season to the run line after a win and 8-2 at home after allowing one run or less. Cubbies -1.5 here.

The road has never been a friendly place for a team built to win at Coors Field as the Rockies are 8-26 in their last 34 on road games. The Brewers have been a sizzling home team where they have been winning two out of every three games. The Brewers have also eaten LHP alive where they own a 20-9 record. Jorge DeLa Rosa hasn't exactly been the answer for the Rockies as he has compiled a 6.58 ERA and is exactly the kind of LHP that the Brewers destroy. Dave Bush has pitched much better as he has replaced a 6.56 ERA in his first eight appearances with a 2.94 ERA over his last eight. The Brewers get the comfortable win here.

Toronto finally has something going at home. The Jays beat the O's the first two games in this series and they have now won their last four at home. Jeremy Guthrie has pitched well for the O's, but mostly at home where the O's possess a record that is nine games over .500. They have been 6-3 in his nine home starts. On the road they have been just 3-7 in his 10 starts and overall are 10 games below .500 – a complete different team. We like the Jays to make it three in a row here.

Although the D-Backs are still holding onto first place in the NL West, it is more by default than any of their recent play. They have now played .362 baseball over their last 47 games and that is a very long meaningful stretch. If you project that out to 162 games the D-Backs are a team that is winning just 58 games and losing 104!! If you look past their good start in April, they have been just 2-10 to a -1.5 runline with Dan Haren on the mound and 0-6 on the road. Jason Bergman has deserved a better fate than his 1-6 record, and his recent pitching has been better than even that of Haren's. Bergman has pitched to a 1.80 ERA over his last three starts, so we make the Nats the choice here on the runline.

Results: 2-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated baseball picks blog.
• View our MLB odds and lines here.
• View our MLB ATS records here.
• View our updated 2008 MLB baseball picks results.
• Check out 2008 MLB baseball season preview here.
• Take a look at our MLB baseball handicapping philosophy here.
• Check out free mlb pick here.
• Don't forget to read our baseball betting here.
• Read our MLB Game Analysis here.
• View our MLB prior picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-09-2008
What a difference a year makes, as the Indians were riding high last year all the way into October. Flash forward one year and here we are before the All-Star break and C.C. Sabathia has already been ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-08-2008
This is a St. Louis team that has been a lot more competitive than most thought at the beginning of the year. They are 10 games over .500 and their road play has been superb of late as they are 15-9 o...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-07-2008
This line is held down by the fact that the Rockies have won five of six. The problem is that all of those games were at home where the Rox have been a better than good team in their last 21...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-06-2008
Minnesota is red hot while Cleveland is ice cold. The Twins have won 17 of their last 20 while the Indians have lost 13 of 17. What's interesting is that Minnesota has been winning with offense (n...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-05-2008
Where has the offense gone for this Yankees' team? The bullpen has been solid, but the offense has led this team to a startling 32-52-2 mark to the UNDER. This offense has been held to three runs ...