Baseball Picks - July 08, 2008
Gave back a couple of units as we finished 1-2 yesterday. Over the last four days our MLB picks are hitting 65% (11-6) and are +12 units. Today we have five picks with a 4-unit selection.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: St. Louis at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on St. Louis +1.5 runs -116 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.6)
This is a St. Louis team that has been a lot more competitive than most thought at the beginning of the year. They are 10 games over .500 and their road play has been superb of late as they are 15-9 on the road over their last 24. Joel Piniero has not been great, but 9 of his 13 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or less, and more than capeable of keeping the Cards in the game. This is a rough spot for the Phillies to be such heavy chalk as they have been just 7-14 over their last 21 games, and are currently in a 3 game losing streak. The offense has gone cold producing less than 4 runs a game over their last 18. The Phillies also have a tired bullpen, and when a team that starts a pitcher that strikes out more than 5 a game, that has a tired bullpen throwing 6+ innings in 2 straight games, they have been 10-30 at home vs the -1.5 runline. Bodes well for the Cards here so we will play them on the runline.
Game: Arizona at Washington (7:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Washington +1.5 runs -119 (runline) (risk 4 to win 3.4)
It is hard to put stock in this Arizona team that is having all kinds of problems right now, and in their last 29 road games they are just 8-21. What is worth noting is that three of those eight wins have come by a single run. This means that in just five times in their last 29 road games they have won by more than a run. Odalis Perez has pitched to an under two ERA in his last three for the Nats. Brandon Webb has been slipping of late, posting a 5.21 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 22 hits in just 19 innings. Perez meanwhile has a 1.98 ERA over his last three. We like the runline here, full of value on the Nats.
Game: Cincinnati at Chicago (8:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati +1.5 runs -144 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.1)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 9 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
The Cubs have been good at home all year, but Ryan Dempster is coming back to Earth after a huge start. Dempster and the Cubs have managed just two wins by more than a run in his last seven starts while all previous wins were by 2+ runs. The Reds have Aaron Harang on the mound who has struggled this year when looking back at last year where he dominated. The capacity to throw 0's at the Cubs is there on any given night. The Reds fit a nice situation here as well. Teams that are +1.5 on the runline with a pitcher that has an ERA between 4.2-4.7, against an opponent with a starting pitcher that gives up under six hits per game have gone 204-137 good for +62.1 units over the last 10 years. We will back the Reds on the runline here. We also like the UNDER in this one especially with the Cubs scoring dropping off so dramatically lately. We like Dempster to keep the Cubs down given his 2.71 ERA and 9-0 lifetime mark at Wrigley.
Game: Atlanta at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -136 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.2)
The Braves are in a tailspin as they have now gone just 10-19 over their last 29 games. Last night they were shutout by LA, and it marked the eighth time already this season where they failed to produce a run. The wins have been hard to come by on the road, period for this Braves team as they are now just 12-31 in road games. As good as Jair Jurgens has pitched for the Braves they are still just 3-5 in his road starts. Chad Billingsley has pitched even better for the Dodgers with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. With the Braves inability to find the win column on the road, we will back LA behind a hot Billingsley.
Results: 1-4
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-07-2008
This line is held down by the fact that the Rockies have won five of six. The problem is that all of those games were at home where the Rox have been a better than good team in their last 21...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-06-2008
Minnesota is red hot while Cleveland is ice cold. The Twins have won 17 of their last 20 while the Indians have lost 13 of 17. What's interesting is that Minnesota has been winning with offense (n...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-05-2008
Where has the offense gone for this Yankees' team? The bullpen has been solid, but the offense has led this team to a startling 32-52-2 mark to the UNDER. This offense has been held to three runs ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-04-2008
What has happened to Tom Gorzelanny? His ERA is well into the 6's. He has been closer to his true self lately, as his last six starts have seen him allow no more than four runs. After a quick star...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-03-2008
This line comes into question for a couple of reasons. The first is the D-Backs, after a !GOOD1! start in which they looked to be a runaway in the NL West, have become a poor team, slipping under .500...
