Major League Baseball Pick - July 08, 2007
1-2 yesterday for -1.4 units. Today, three picks as we look forward to the All-Star Break. We will not have any picks for the game and we'll resume again on Thursday...
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Minnesota +113 (risk 2 to win 2.3)
Minnesota has won six of their last eleven and three of their last five. Chicago has dropped four of their last seven. After allowing 32 runs to Minnesota in a Friday doubleheader, Chicago kept the Twins in check yesterday, winning 3-1. But we look for Minnesota to win the series here this afternoon. You see, Chicago doesn't have Mark Buehrle on the mound today as they did yesterday. Instead Javier Vazquez goes against Carlos Silva. Vazquez has been solid this year with a 3.70 ERA but it hasn't translated into a lot of wins. In sixteen games he's just 5-5 and he's actually got a losing home record. The run support just hasn't been there for him as the Sox are averaging just 4.1 runs per game on .240 hitting. Minnesota meanhwile averages 5.0 runs per game (5.3 on the road). And, we know that Vazquez isn't going the distance which means Minnesota gets to tee off on a horrible White Sox bulpen (6.54 home ERA). Chicago is just 8-16 this season in close games (line of +125 to -125). Vazquez must not like the sun either as the Sox are just 5-12 the past two seasons with him starting a day game. We'll take the hotter, better hitting team here.
Game: Seattle at Oakland (4:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Seattle +180 (risk 2 to win 3.6)
Seattle continues to get little respect. This team has won thirteen of their last seventeen games including seven as underdogs. They have crushed Oakland in the past two games by a combined score of 11 to 1 and won both games as dogs. Today they are again instilled as a large underdog. Yes, the pitching starting matchup is the obvious reason. Ryan Feierabend has a 9.72 ERA while Joe Blanton has a 3.09 ERA. There is no doubt that Oakland has a big advantage there. But that advatange didn't do much for Oakland the past couple of games because their offense is sputtering. THey have managed just ten total runs in their last five games. The Athletics are averaging just 4.0 runs per game at home this season on .238 hitting. If Feierabend does somehow get shelled, he'll be yanked and a very good bullpen (3.46 ERA and 75% save) will come to his rescue. Seattle is 11-7 on the road this year vs. winning teams and 23-12 vs. AL teams batting .260 or worse. Oakland is 9-21 the past three seasons revenging a shutout loss. Poor hitting teams (batting .265 or worse) facing terrible starters (6.70+ ERA) are just 12-32 in July games over the past decade. We have a shot here with a hot Seattle club and we'll take it.
Game: Florida at Los Angeles Dodgers (4:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Florida +124 (risk 2 to win 2.5)
LA has lost four straight and Florida has won three in a row and four of five. We look for the Marlins to pull off the road sweep here. We like Florida today for a lot of the same reasons as yesterday. They are a winning road team (25-21) that can score (5.0 per game on the road). Mark Hendrickson has pitched better than Scott Olsen this season but of late, Hendrickson has really cracked. He's 0-3 in his last three starts, lasting only 4.8 innings per start and posting a 6.91 ERA. He hasn't been one to go deep, even earlier on as he is averaging just 5.3 innings per start on the season. He is definitely susceptible to getting rocked early on. With his recent performance, and a career 7.04 ERA vs. Florida, his psyche has to be a bit fragile. Yes, this is Florida's seventh straight road game, but so what? They are better on the road than at home this year and they are 10-3 this season in games following 6+ straight road games! They are also 16-10 as a road dog of +100 to +150. With Olsen starting, they are 11-5 the past two seasons in this role (road dog of up to +150).
Results: 1-2
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-07-2007
Washington is at or near the bottom of the league in almost every statistical category. They are currently in a deep slump offensively. They have produced three runs or less in 12 of their last 13 gam...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-06-2007
Not sure how a team with such a poor history on the road year after year and in the throes of an 11-game losing streak gets to be favored on the road. Tampa Bay has struggled in all aspects of the gam...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-05-2007
You won't find many teams under .500 as we approach the All-Star break with their worst pitcher on the mound favored by this much. That is, unless your the NY Yankees. Kei Igawa has not been anyth...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-04-2007
The Giants haven't won on the road in their last seven tries and they are 2-3 in their last five yet they are favored here on the road. They must have a great pitcher going. right? Well Matt Cain ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-03-2007
A-Rod is likely to be in the lineup but may not be at 100% after straining his hamstring in Monday's game. The Yankees put Wang on the mound tonight and he has been quite solid this season - one o...
