Baseball Prediction - July 07, 2007
Finished with a 2-1 winner yesterday. Back with three more picks today including a 4-unit selection.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Milwaukee at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Milwaukee -134 (risk 4 to win 3)
Washington is at or near the bottom of the league in almost every statistical category. They are currently in a deep slump offensively. They have produced three runs or less in 12 of their last 13 games, and are just 5-17 in their last 22. Jason Simontacchi will have his hands full with a good Brewer lineup and he has not been the answer. He started off mediocre, but has gotten bad. He has pitched to an ERA of 7.41 in his last seven starts, allowing 56 hits in 37.2 innings. To make matters worse, in his 11 starts the pen has given up 26 runs, which is more runs than the Nats’ have scored as a team in their last 11 games! As bad as the Nats’, have been they are at their worst against the better teams. They have a 10-30 record against .500 or better teams. This is a value packed money line in this match-up.
Game: San Francisco at St. Louis (7:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on St. Louis -104 (risk 2 to win 1.9)
Linecum is off a beauty over Arizona but prior to that game he hadn't won in six starts. Braden Looper is also coming off a good performance against Arizona. He has struggled more than Linecum but the Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 this season with him as starter when facing an NL opponent that bats .255 or worse (SF bats .251). Also, the St. Louis bullpen has a distinct advantage. The Cards’ pen has a 3.22 home ERA with 85% save percentage. San Francisco's pen has saved just 62% on the road and owns a 4.17 ERA. San Francisco's primary offense is Barry Bonds (who is 2-for-5 lifetime against Looper). On the road the Giants are just 16-26. St. Louis is a .500 team at home and they fare especially well against right handed pitchers, scoring 4.6 per game (vs. 4.0 against lefties). The Giants are just 45-61 the past two seasons vs. losing teams and we'll fade them here on the road.
Game: Florida at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Florida +152 (risk 3 to win 4.6)
Don't look now but Florida is playing superb. They have won two straight and four of their last six games. They beat Greg Maddux and Jake Peavy to split the series with San Diego and last game they took care of Billingsley to take a 1-0 lead in this series. LA has lost three straight and five of eight. Sergio Mitre gets the ball. Yes, he is 2-4 but that has not been his fault. This guy has a 2.88 ERA! In 81.3 innings he has given up just five home runs, 18 walks and 26 earned runs. All he needs is a little run support. He may get it today. In their last ten games, the Marlins have scored 5+ runs six times! They average more runs per game than does LA. It won't be easy against Derek Lowe but to get a hot team with hot bats and a very good pitcher at this price is a gift we can't refuse. Florida, a losing team overall, is 24-21 on the road including 9-4 against NL teams that average 4.3 or fewer runs per game. They are 15-10 as a road dog of up to +150.
Results: 1-2
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-06-2007
Not sure how a team with such a poor history on the road year after year and in the throes of an 11-game losing streak gets to be favored on the road. Tampa Bay has struggled in all aspects of the gam...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-05-2007
You won't find many teams under .500 as we approach the All-Star break with their worst pitcher on the mound favored by this much. That is, unless your the NY Yankees. Kei Igawa has not been anyth...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-04-2007
The Giants haven't won on the road in their last seven tries and they are 2-3 in their last five yet they are favored here on the road. They must have a great pitcher going. right? Well Matt Cain ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-03-2007
A-Rod is likely to be in the lineup but may not be at 100% after straining his hamstring in Monday's game. The Yankees put Wang on the mound tonight and he has been quite solid this season - one o...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-02-2007
The Yankees continue to be a bettor's nightmare and there is simply no value on a team that is always chalk laden, but losing games one after another. The Yankees have squandered any hope they cre...
