Baseball Betting Free Pick - July 06, 2008

We went 5-1 yesterday. Today we have three picks...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cleveland at Minnesota (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 8 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)

Minnesota is red hot while Cleveland is ice cold. The Twins have won 17 of their last 20 while the Indians have lost 13 of 17. What's interesting is that Minnesota has been winning with offense (not defense) and Cleveland has been losing thanks to weak defense. Over their last ten games, the Twins have scored 5.7 runs per game. Over their last seven, the Indians have given up 7.2 per game. Yes, Cliff Lee goes tonight for Cleveland. He's been incredible this season. But, when he leaves the game, the Twins offense gets to tee off on an Indians pen that has a 5.83 ERA. Let's not forget this team scores 5.1 runs per game at home and they are 19-8 OVER this season vs. starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.00 or better. Cleveland should be able to score against Glen Perkins who has a good, but not great 4.65 home ERA. We like the OVER here.

The Angels looked bad yesterday, committing four errors and allowing seven runs. However, if it weren't for a 3-run third inning, the Angels still would have won the game. We look for a bounce-back today behind the arm of Jon Garland. Toronto is just 22-32 to the run line on the road after a win the past two seasons. They are 14-29 this season on the run line when the total is set at 8 to 8.5. The Angels are 13-7 against the run line at home after a loss. They are also 22-14 this season to the run line against teams that alllow under 4.3 runs per game. We like LA's chances at a 2+ run win here.

San Diego averages 3.7 runs per game, 3.8 against LHP and 3.7 per game on grass fields. They are 5-2 UNDER the past seven games and 21-12 UNDER in division games. Arizona scores at a much better clip, but they are also 5-2 UNDER the past seven games, averaging 3.9 runs per game. The D-Backs are 16-4 UNDER the past decade against teams that average under 3.9 runs per game in mid-to-late season play. While Randy Johnson has struggled this year, he will not vs. this Pads offense. This season, San Diego is 11-2 UNDER after 5+ straight road games. We like this one to stay low.

Results: 2-1

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-05-2008
Where has the offense gone for this Yankees' team? The bullpen has been solid, but the offense has led this team to a startling 32-52-2 mark to the UNDER. This offense has been held to three runs ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-04-2008
What has happened to Tom Gorzelanny? His ERA is well into the 6's. He has been closer to his true self lately, as his last six starts have seen him allow no more than four runs. After a quick star...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-03-2008
This line comes into question for a couple of reasons. The first is the D-Backs, after a !GOOD1! start in which they looked to be a runaway in the NL West, have become a poor team, slipping under .500...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-02-2008
This Yankees team is quite puzzling. The lineup is so deep, but they often find themselves in offensive slumps, and they are deep within one right now. The Yankees have scored just 7 runs in their las...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-01-2008
The Nats have never been a good road team and this season is no different. Washington have posted an 8-18 mark on the road against .500+ teams, and are just 11-22 overall in their last 33 games. Colli...