Baseball Free Picks - July 05, 2008

We went 3-2 yesterday for +2.8 units. Tonight we have six picks...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Boston at New York Yankees (3:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 10 -120 (risk 2 to win 1.7)

Where has the offense gone for this Yankees' team? The bullpen has been solid, but the offense has led this team to a startling 32-52-2 mark to the UNDER. This offense has been held to three runs or less 37 times this season. They have plated two or less in four of their last six games. The Red Sox offense has not been as potent on the road, where they have failed to top the three run mark 19 times this season. Today we ride the UNDER in this one.

After a surprising '07 season, the Indians have the look of a team that has thrown in the towel at this point of the season. This one has been equally surprising. The Indians’ futility has reached a new low as they have now lost more games on the road than any other AL team and won the fewest. The latest losing streak has reached six games. The Tribe face Kevin Slowey today who has been on fire, pitching to a 0.43 ERA in his last three starts, and a Twins’ team that is red hot as well. The Twins get the call in this one.

The Nats have not been a good road team in many years, and their recent play changes nothing. They are 1-7 in their last eight on the road and have produced three or less runs in six of them, which has always been their problem. They have dropped the first two here, totaling just three runs in the two games. At 24-19 Cincinnati remains a quality club at home. Tim Redding pitched well for the Nats through May, but has since regressed back to more of what you'd expect, raising his ERA to 5.19. The Reds get their third in a row against the Nats in this one. We also like the UNDER here as Washington averages 3.6 per game (3.3 against RHP) and Cincinnati averages 4.3 per game. Josh Fogg can and will break out of his doldrums vs. this Nats club. Redding is 16-4 UNDER in his last 20 against teams with a losing record in second-half play. He's also 12-3 UNDER the past two seasons at +125 to -125. Fogg is 2-1 UNDER in his last 13 against NL teams that average under 3.9 runs per game.

We have a top pitching matchup in Anaheim tonight with Halladay matching up against Lackey. The Jays have really struggled on the road as they are just 3-12 in their last 15, while the Angels have been a hot team as they have gone 20-10 over their last 30. As good as Halladay is, John Lackey has been almost unhittable this season. Lackey has allowed just six runs in his last six starts, but more important is that he pitches deep into games where the pen has allowed just two runs in those last six starts as well. We think that with the struggling Jays’ offense and if the Angels can get to three runs, which has happened in 12 of 18 of Halladay's starts, the Angels have a good chance here. Jays’ opponents also have gotten to four runs against them in half of Halladay's starts. At nearly 2 to 1 odds we like the value in the runline here.

The Giants are still looking for Barry Zito to win a game at home, or for that matter, win a game he starts at home where they are 0-8. Is Zito that bad? Well they started 0-9 in his first nine starts, but have since been 4-4, and this is an opportunity for him to get win number 1 at home. Chan Ho Park has good numbers this season, but horrible numbers against the Giants over his career where he holds a 5.08 ERA, and losing record. That is the equalizer here for us and getting plus money on the home-team Giants is where the money lies in this one.

Results: 5-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• View our updated blog baseball picks.
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• Here we show our 2008 MLB baseball pick results.
• Check out our updated 2008 season baseball handicapping preview.
• Check out our updated mlb gambling philosophy.
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• Read our MLB Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Here we show our baseball prior predictions.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-04-2008
What has happened to Tom Gorzelanny? His ERA is well into the 6's. He has been closer to his true self lately, as his last six starts have seen him allow no more than four runs. After a quick star...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-03-2008
This line comes into question for a couple of reasons. The first is the D-Backs, after a !GOOD1! start in which they looked to be a runaway in the NL West, have become a poor team, slipping under .500...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-02-2008
This Yankees team is quite puzzling. The lineup is so deep, but they often find themselves in offensive slumps, and they are deep within one right now. The Yankees have scored just 7 runs in their las...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-01-2008
The Nats have never been a good road team and this season is no different. Washington have posted an 8-18 mark on the road against .500+ teams, and are just 11-22 overall in their last 33 games. Colli...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-30-2008
Ok, so the oddsmakers are now saying that Tampa Bay is for real, but let's not forget that so are the Red Sox. After slipping behind the Rays in the standings, we have to think the Sox will c...