Baseball Free Picks - July 01, 2008

We had a horrible day on the bases yesterday. Today we bounce back with seven picks including a solid 4-unit play. Over the past six weeks our MLB picks are hitting 58% (130-96).

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	130-96 last 226 picks	58%	+$8320
WNBA	24-15 last 39 picks	62%	+$3100
TOTAL			+$11420

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Washington at Florida (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Florida -137 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.2)

The Nats have never been a good road team and this season is no different. Washington have posted an 8-18 mark on the road against .500+ teams, and are just 11-22 overall in their last 33 games. Collin Balester will make his Major League debut tonight for the Nats, but his numbers at AAA Columbus aren't outstanding. He has pitched to a 4 ERA and allowed 14 HR'S in just 78 innings. Like the Marlins at home here.

It's not very often when you get a pitcher that has completely dominated an opponent over his career at plus money and backed by a good team as well. Tim Wakefield has amassed a 19-3 record against the D-Rays over his career. It is difficult to neglect the value in a very good Sox team backed by those kind of numbers. Matt Garza has pitched well of late, but his numbers against the Sox aren't very appealing this year, with just two starts and a 6.97 ERA. This is still a sub .500 pitcher for his career. The value lies with the Sox here.

The White Sox aren't just a hot team right now winning five straight, they are becoming a very good team as indicated by a long run at 28-15 over their last 43 games. The Sox have won all four home games against Cleveland this season. The Indians have become a bad team as they have mirrored what the Sox have done, but in a losing way. Cleveland has gone gone 15-28 over their last 43 and just 7-18 over their last 25 road games. Cliff Lee vs. John Danks is basically a tossup, but the White Sox are finding ways to win while the Indians, ways to lose. We will back the Sox for their fifth straight at home over The Tribe.

This is hot vs. hot, or is it? The Twins hot has them playing over their heads while the Tigers' hot has them playing as everyone knew they could and then some. The Tigers have won six straight games and stand at 18-4 over their last 22. After making some noise with their 12-1 run, the Twins appear to be settling down into the average team they are, losing two of their last three and game one to the Tigers last night. The perception here is where the value lies. The Twins aren't as good as they have played, and have already stepped down from that level while the Tigers are a very good team and playing at their best right now. The value is evident as the Tigers take the field as a dog is just to hard to pass up at this point.

Aaron Cook goes for Colorado today and San Diego can't be glad to see him. Cook is 7-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his last ten vs. the Pads. He's never lost at home to San Diego. Overall he's 10-5 on the season and owns a 3.25 ERA at home. San Diego averages just 3.7 runs per game (3.6 in night games) while Colorado scores 4.8 per game at home. San Diego is just 37-47 this season to the run line. Cook is 28-15 to the run line the past two seasons. He's also 20-7 the past decade to the run line vs. teams that average 7+ strikeouts per game. We like the Rockies to win by 2+ runs here.

No other way to put it than the Mariners are a bad baseball team. They were shutout last night and ran their season total scoring two runs or less to 25 games. It has even been hard to win games when they get good pitching either home or away, as their home mark has been even worse then their away record. Toronto has been up and down all year, but right now they are definately up, winning six of eight, and Jesse Litsch has shown signs of coming out of a few-start funk. This is still a pitcher with an AL ERA for his career of under four, so against a punchless Mariners' lineup we look for a superb performance from him and a Jays win.

While the Cubs have been extraordinary at home posting a 33-10 mark, they certainly have been less than ordinary on the road at 17-23. Recently, they are just 5-8 in their last 13 overall and not playing well at the moment.  Jason Marquis got out quickly, posting an ERA in the mid 3's over his first four starts and has since pitched to a 5.5 ERA. Matt Cain has deserved a better fate pitching 11 games allowing three runs or less, but just four wins to show for it. Cubs look ripe to be had on the road, and Marquis might be the kind of pitcher the Giants make some noise against.

Results: 3-4

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our mlb picks blog here.
• Check out our updated MLB Baseball odds lines and spreads.
• Take a look at our MLB ATS standings here.
• Here we show our 2008 MLB prior pick season results.
• Take a look at our 2008 baseball gambling preivew here.
• Don't forget to read our mlb baseball betting approach here.
• Hop over to our baseball predictions here.
• Check out sportsbook reviews mlb here.
• Hop over to our MLB Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• View our MLB picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-30-2008
Ok, so the oddsmakers are now saying that Tampa Bay is for real, but let's not forget that so are the Red Sox. After slipping behind the Rays in the standings, we have to think the Sox will c...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-29-2008
St. Louis broke a couple of streaks with their win yesterday. The win put an end to their three game slide and also ended KC's six-game winning streak. But let's not let one game cloud the sit...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-28-2008
Minnesota is sizzling right now posting yet another come from behind win last night over the Brewers to run their streak to 10 games and 12 of 13. How can there not be value on a home team as a slight...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-27-2008
For years Colorado has been bounced around on the road, and lately they have taken their biggest bounce. The Rockies are now 6-24 on the road over their last 30 games, and they have certainly seen som...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-26-2008
The Rays will look to sweep the Marlins on the road for the first time in the 11 year history of these two teams. Matt Garza has given the Rays’ rotation a lift, but almost exclusively at home. ...