Baseball Betting Pick - August 31, 2010

We finished 2-0 around the bases last night - both underdogs, including Washington as a +160 dog. Our MLB picks are 14-5 (+$1,450) on the week and over the last two months, we are 79-50 (61%) for +37 units - that's $3,720 for $100 players. 

WUNDERDOG 2010 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CFB	25-10 last 35 picks	71%	+$6040
MLB	79-50 last 129 picks	61%	+$3720
NBA	104-80 last 184 picks	57%	+$3530
NFL	20-19 Season-to-Date	51%	+$10
NHL	369-273 last 642 picks	57%	+$17300
WNBA	55-42 last 97 picks	57%	+$2630
TOTAL			+$33230

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cleveland +120 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.4)

It seems like the Chicago White sox were winning every game in site not long ago. Now we’re looking at a team that since the all-star break is just 22-22. The Cleveland Indians were 20 games under at the break, but have played much better at 20-25 since. Edwin Jackson has great stuff, but trouble with command, and he had back-to-back good years where he went a combined 27-20. He is otherwise 19-29, and had just a single season pitching to an ERA of under 4. The White Sox are playing .500 baseball because they are 1-8 after a win, and can't get anything going. The Indians have taken four of their last five vs. a right hander, and I like them in this spot. Cleveland gets the call.

Chris Carpenter is certainly well noted for his success, but Wandy Rodriguez has been opening some eyes. His last seven starts have covered 48.1 innings, and he has allowed just 6 total runs, translating to an ERA of 1.12. Chris Carpenter is the model of consistency when healthy and he has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last nine starts. The Astros are a light-hitting team which has now played nine straight UNDERS when posted as a dog. Rodriguez has pitched to a 12-5-1 mark to the UNDER in his last 18 starts as a home dog. These clubs have historically played low-scoring games, with the total going over in just 14 of the last 44 meetings. I'll play the UNDER in this one.

Jordan Zimmerman did not pitch in a major league game in 13 months, so you have to give him a pass in his first outing. I would expect vast improvement this time out. His last seven starts prior to the layoff saw him work to a 3.17 ERA, so he definitely has the stuff to provide a quality outing in this one. Anibel Sanchez is a hot and cold pitcher. He is off an outing where he allowed 4 runs to the Mets who have trouble scoring period. He has been very erratic with his command logging six starts with four or more walks and can't be trusted. The Marlins are struggling vs. right-hand pitching where they are 1-6 in their last seven, while Washington has taken four straight vs. the righties. I like Washington in this one.

While you may be thinking that this is too much chalk to be laying on this Cubs team, think again. The Pittsburgh Pirates may go down as the worst road team of all time in baseball this season. They carry an ugly 13-52 mark into this one, dropping their last 14. Worse than that is this team is now 2-31 on the road when facing a right-hand pitcher. The fact is that the oddsmakers can't match those numbers, and as chalky as this might sound, take a look at the other side. You’re getting less than 2-to-1 odds on a team that is 0-14 on the road in their last 14, and overall has won 2 of 32 on the road vs. right handers, which is 16 to 1. I'll play the value here, and it resides with the Cubs.

Results: 1-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Check out MLB ATS standings here.
• Updated today: MLB handicapping philosophy.
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• View 2010 MLB season preview here.
• View our mlb sportsbook here.
• Don't forget to visit our mlb baseball predictions.
• Don't forget to read our Baseball odds here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-30-2010
The Florida Marlins have not been able to make much use of their home-field advantage this season as they have a better record on the road, standing at just .500 at home. Alejandro Sanabia has had mix...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-29-2010
The Mariners face yet another sweep and I think the Twins get it here. Carl Pavano is 15-9 with a 3.56 ERA. He's actually pitched better on the road this season than at home. Luke French hasn'...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-28-2010
It isn't too often that you’re going to see a road team with a 25-41 record listed as a favorite, but that is what we have in this one. Zack Greinke got off to a tremendous start last year, ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-27-2010
Talk about two struggling clubs. The O's started strong under Buck Showalter, but have since cooled off, losing eight of their last twelve. The Angels have dropped seven of their last ten. Neither...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-26-2010
Sure, Yovani Gallardo has been very good most of the season, posting an 11-5 mark. But there are chinks in that armor. Four of his five losses have come at home and the Brewers are just 13-11 in his s...