Baseball Gambling Pick - August 31, 2008

We went 1-2 yesterday for -3.4 units. We are hitting 59% (20-14) for +13.3 units over the past two weeks. Today we have three picks...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: San Francisco at Cincinnati (12:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati -121 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)

The Giants average just 3.9 runs per game. They own a 29-37 road mark and a 19-30 record in day games this season. The Reds, terrible on the road, are a decent, winning team at home. The pitching matchup here is fairly even. Matt Cain owns the better ERA but San Francisco has lost three of the last four road games he has started. Arroyoa has been excellent in his last three starts (2.82 ERA). The Reds have now won eight of his last eleven starts. He is a perfect 11-0 in his last eleven post-All Star game home starts vs. bad teams (those outscored by 0.5+ runs per game).

Pedro takes the hill for the Mets who look to salvage the series after blowing yet another save last game. He faces the 6-8 Scott Olsen who has put up good numbers, but just hasn't been winning. The Marlins have lost seven straight with him toeing the rubber. At home, Florida is only getting 4.2 runs per game on .237 hitting so we look for Martinez to have success here. He is 17-5 to the run line in his last 22 facing NL teams that average .250 or worse. We like the Mets to post a 2+ run win here.

Houston goes for the series sweep but we don't think it's going to happen. While they have been slumping of late, the Cards own the NL's best road record and they are bound to snap out of this at some point. They look to Todd Wellemeyer to end the road skid and this guy is 11-5 with a 3.87 ERA on the season. He's 4-0 with a 3.01 ERA on the road and has a 2.89 ERA over his last three starts. If he can keep Houston's bats in check, the Cards should win here as the run support should be there (Puljos batting .532 over the last dozen games and St. Louis averaging 5.2 runs per game on the road). St. Louis is 44-23 vs. the run line this season on the road. Wandy Rodriguez is just 3-11 in August games on the run line the past three seasons and 13-23 on the run line vs. division foes. He's also jsut 1-9 vs. the run line over that span vs. teams batting .275 or better! We'll take St. Louis on the run line here to avoid the sweep.

Results: 2-1

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-30-2008
The Rays have put an end to any thoughts of their demise this late in the season - this is just flat out a good team. The Rays are 50-19 at home and 60-32 against right-handed pitching overall. The Ra...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-29-2008
The Twins are in a battle in the AL Central and are just 1.5 games in back of the White Sox, and are chasing the Red Sox for the wildcard as well. Kevin Slowey has been masterful of late for the Twins...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-28-2008
The Florida Marlins have gotten some help in their rotation with the return of Anibel Sanchez, who has made five starts and pitched to a respectable 3.99 ERA. Sanchez is no stranger to Turner Field an...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-27-2008
Boston is trying to put the nail in the coffin of their hated rivals. But we think New York pride steps up tonight. Six games back of the Sox, New York simply must win here to keep reasonable hopes al...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-26-2008
The Indians have had a dismal year, but they have been a red-hot team of late as they have now won eight straight. Now they have what should be the AL Cy Young winner on the mound in Cliff Lee. Lee st...