Baseball Betting Picks - August 29, 2009

We connected on just two premium picks yesterday. Today, we look to break out of our mini-slump and gather some steam with four premium MLB picks including a 5-unit play. Over the last two and a half months, we are hitting 59% at 187-132 for +131.5 units.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	87-73 last 160 picks	54%	+$1130
MLB	187-132 last 319 picks	59%	+$13150
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$34060

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cleveland at Baltimore (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cleveland -110 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

Jeremy Sowers has pitched much better for the Indians of late. Despite a poor performance in his last outing, his previous five outings showed an impressive 3.09 ERA. The Orioles counter with rookie Chris Tillman, who really has struggled keeping the ball in the park. Tillman has allowed nine HRs in just 35 big league innings, and the Indians are a team that can score and take average pitching deep, as they have been 15-6 in their last 21 against a pitcher with a WHIP over 1.30. The O's inconsistent offense has led them to a 22-48 record after scoring 5+ in their previous game. The Orioles offense takes a sharp negative turn against left-hand pitching as well, as they average 5.1 runs a game vs. right-handers, but just four per game against southpaws. The Indians meanwhile, are plating 5.6 runs a game on the road, so I will go with them in this one.

The Orioles have two huge negatives going against them in this one. They are at their worst after scoring 5+ runs in a game, as their inconsistent offense has trouble scoring and that has left them with a 22-48 mark after scoring five or more in the previous game. They are also a poor offensive team that scores over a run a game less against lefties than they do righties. They will face a Cleveland team that can score a lot, and with Chris Tillman on the mound serving up a HR in one of every four innings he pitches in the big leagues, adds value to Cleveland here on the runline.

The Houston Astros are imploding on the road as they are now just 5-15 in their last 20 on the highway. The offense is nowhere to be found as they have produced just three runs or less in 13 of the 20 games. Despite a record of 15 games under .500, the Diamondbacks have really been playing good baseball at home as they have turned-in a 14-7 mark over their last 21 played in the desert. Those numbers go off the charts against a right-hand pitcher as the D-Backs are now 11-1 in their last 12 at home against a right-hand starter. The 'Stros have not been getting it done as a road dog in this range, turning in a dismal 8-20 mark in their last 28 when posted as a road dog from +110 to +150. The D-Backs are tearing up right-hand pitching, and the Astros are plating three runs or less in 65% of their last 20 road games, all point to the D-Backs in this one.

The Astros have shown an inability to score or win on the road. They have scored three or less in 13 of their last 20, leading to a poor road mark of 5-15 in their last 20. The D-Backs have been smoking hot against right-hand pitching as they are 11-1 in their last 12 against them. The total score in those 11 wins has been 82-35, or 7.5-3.2, meaning that the D-Backs are winning by a margin of 4.3 runs per game. The value is great here for a runline play on the D-Backs and will play them on the runline.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our 2009 MLB baseball pick results.
• Check out baseball blog here.
• Here we show our MLB handicapping philosophy.
• Don't forget to read our baseball prior predictions here.
• Don't forget to read our MLB Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Take a look at our mlb betting here.
• View our updated MLB spreads.
• Read our free mlb baseball picks here.
• View mlb baseball ATS recprds here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-28-2009
The Tigers have become a very potent home team as they are now 25-9 here in their last 34 played at home, which has kept them atop the Central division. The Rays’ problems have been on the road ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-27-2009
The Cincinnati Reds hung in the NL Central race for awhile, but those hopes have all disappeared as this team has sunk hard and fast, thanks to a bad run of 12-28 in their last 40 games. The Reds are ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-26-2009
Last year the Tampa Bay Rays surprised everyone by making it all the way to the world series. They have been good this season, but not nearly as good as a season ago. One thing that hasn't changed...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-25-2009
The Rays have been almost impossible to beat at home, but very suspect on the road where they are nine games below .500. It is also no secret that they are more vulnerable to lefthand pitching as well...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-24-2009
The Colorado Rockies have put together one of the longest and quietest positive runs in baseball this season. For what has amounted to a half-season of games, (their last 70 played), the Rockies ...