Mlb Baseball Pick Online - August 29, 2007

3-0 yesterday for a nice comeback (+14.1 units). Four dogs today...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Colorado at San Francisco (3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Francisco +110 (risk 3 to win 3.3)

The Rockies have had trouble scoring runs and have put up a pair of single-run performances in the first two games here. They are the best team in baseball against RHP for bettors, as they are +17.26 units. They have really struggled against LHP though, as they are the 4th worst team in baseball. They must face a LHP this afternoon in Noah Lowry. He has been by far the best pitcher the Giants have to put on the hill. San Francisco is a hot team right now. They have won six straight and 11 of 13. The Giants have also won 11 of Lowry's last 14 starts. They have struggled all year vs. RHP but have actually been at their best vs. LHP where they are .500 (as opposed to 10 games under vs. righties). Right now it just doesn't matter who they face though as they are the hottest team in baseball. As a small dog at home, with many favorable conditions as described above, we like the Giants sweep!

The Mariners are the most fragile team in baseball. They are a "mindset" team meaning when they start winning, they are nearly impossible to beat and when they start losing, they have a difficult time finding their way back. The Mariners have had 11 winning streaks of 3+ games this season, but at the same time have had losing streaks of 7, 6, 6, 4and 3. They blew a five-run lead yesterday to extend their latest losing battle to four straight. They are poised to be swept. Most of their damage this season has been done against LHP where they stand at 25-8. The fate has been much different against RHP where they are a sub-.500 team at 48-49. Jered Weaver has a 20-8 career record and has settled down of late, with the Angels winning three of his last four starts. Felix Hernandez has pitched well, but his last four starts vs. Baltimore, Minnesota, Chicago and Texas are not the same line-ups he will face in this one. Look for the Angels to get out of town with the sweep.

The Mets have lost five of seven and face a team on a winning streak here yet find themselves favored. Jamie Moyer goes for the Phils. He's been average at best this year but we like him in this situation. He eats up the Mets (5-3 record and 2.88 ERA lifetime) and he held New York to just two runs in seven innings last time they met. He's also a good bet at home having gone 33-13 over the past three seasons including 16-4 in post All-Star break play. Yes, Perez has been very good this year, but he is just 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA vs. the Phils. The Mets are not scoring (4.0 per game over their last seven) while Philadelphia has been scoring. The Phillies average 5.4 per game overall, 5.5 at home and 5.6 vs. LHP. We like the Phillies at home here.

Detroit has lost 12 of their last 17 games vs. division rivals. Ouch. Tonight two average pitchers who have been terrible of late meet. Andrew Miller has a 9.45 ERA in his last three starts while Zack Greinke has a 9.00 ERA in his last three. We like the vet's mindset here more than the fragile rookie's. And, KC has a much better bullpen (3.80 ERA with 76% saves at home this year). Miller's last outing resulted in 6 runs allowed in 4.3 innings. Detroit has lost 14 of their last 19 road games while KC has won 21 of their last 36 at home and the Royals remain a bit under-the-radar. Detroit is 71-61 overall but sub-.500 vs. right handed pitchers. They also seem to drop to the level of their competition. Detroit is just 4-9 since the All Star break vs. teams under 47% and 8-15 vs. AL teams that score 4.7 or less per game.

Results: 3-1

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-28-2007
The Mets were 8-2 in Glavine's first 10 starts but have gone just 8-9 in his last 17, while his ERA has risen a full run at the same time. The Mets are just 23-31 vs. teams with a winning record s...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-27-2007
Not sure if there is a team in baseball worse than the White Sox right now. They are just 2-13 in their last 15 games. We are also not sure if there is a worse pitcher in baseball right now than Jose ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-26-2007
The Phillies got a lift from Kyle Kendrick when he was called up from AAA. They won five of his first six starts, but have since dropped three of four. Lately he has been prone to the long ball, allow...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-24-2007
Oakland has won nine of their last eleven and sixteen of their last twenty-two and they're riding a season-high five game winning streak. Stick a fork in the D-Rays who are now 31 games below...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-23-2007
It has been a tale of two seasons for both these starting pitchers in today's game. Nate Robertson started off the season like he had turned the corner in his career. He was pitching to a sub-3 ER...