Sports Handicapping Free Mlb Picks - August 28, 2009

We hit with just two of our plays last night and are back with seven more premium picks in five games today. Over the last two and a half months, our MLB picks are hitting 60%, 185-127 for +140 units!

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	84-73 last 157 picks	54%	+$280
MLB	185-127 last 312 picks	59%	+$13990
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$34050

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Tampa Bay at Detroit (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Detroit +120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)

The Tigers have become a very potent home team as they are now 25-9 here in their last 34 played at home, which has kept them atop the Central division. The Rays’ problems have been on the road where they are now 56-148 against a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or higher, so being a favorite here in a situation that has shown them winning just 27% of the time shouts value, especially against a Tiger team steamrolling everyone at home. Matt Garza has not been the answer against teams from the AL Central for the Rays, who have struggled to a 2-9 mark in his last 11 against the Central. In a game expected to show some offense, when the total has been 9-10.5, the Rays are a dismal 1-12 in their last 13 with him on the hill. The Tigers are not just beating the cupcakes at home either as they are 23-9 at home against teams with a winning record. We have a live dog here and I'll go with Detroit in this one.

The LA Dodgers’ Chad Billingsley went through a rough stretch, but he has been back on track. Billingsley has pitched to a 2.35 ERA over his last four starts. The Reds are a mess. They hung in the race in the NL Central for quite awhile, but have been just 3-14 in their last 17 home games. Homer Bailey on the mound certainly has not been the solution. He has pitched to an ERA of nearly seven, with the Reds at just 1-5 in his six home starts. The Reds are just 1-6 in his seven starts against a team with a winning record, while the Dodgers have been 10-1 in Billingsley's last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are just 3-13 in Bailey's last 16 starts against a team with a winning record, dropping the last seven. I will go with the Dodgers in this one.

Usually teams at home have played to a record similar to their opponent on the road, but that’s not the case here as the Dodgers are nine games over .500 on the road, while the Reds are nine under at home. The pitching matchup features the Dodgers’ best vs. the Reds’ worst, so there is greater distance between these teams that goes beyond wins and losses. The Reds are just 3-13 in their last 16 at home. In the 13 losses they have scored just 35 runs or 2.2 a game while yielding five. This certainly sets up the runline nicely here, so I'm going with LA on the runline.

The Twins have played themselves out of the AL Central race, and once a dominating force at home has only won four of their last 12 played here. Brian Duensing will make his third big league start, and he has pitched to a 4.91 ERA against the soft-hitting Royals and White Sox. He will face a very potent Rangers’ lineup that has to be feeling good winning two of three at Yankee Stadium. The Rangers’ lineup is feasting on ordinary pitching as they are now 23-7 against a starter with a WHIP of above 1.30 in their last 30 games, and with Hunter on the hill as a favorite, the Rangers have won their last four. The Twins are just 3-9 in their last 12 against the West, and as a home dog they have shown no bite dropping their last four. I'll go with the Rangers here.

The Twins have not been the kind of team this year that has fought off adversity like we have seen in the past. They are just 4-8 in their last 12 at home, and will have an unproven commodity on the hill. The Rangers’ pitcher has lead them to four straight wins as a favorite, while the Twins have dropped their last four as a dog. The Rangers are winning big against pitchers with a WHIP above 1.30, as they have won 23 of their last 30, or 77% of the time, boding well for the runline here. I will grab the Rangers on the runline in this one.

The Oakland A's have not done much on the road all season, and right now a bad offense is struggling as much as they have all season. The A's have scored three runs or less in 11 of their last 12 games. They are facing a team that is averaging close to six runs a game on the season that is not going to be an easy task, especially for a team that is just 16-43 in their last 59 on the road against a team with a winning record on the season. The A's inconsistency has also shown them to be in a difficult position after a win, where they are just 9-21 in their last 30 off a win. The Angels are 46-22 in their last 68, and 24-9 against a team with a losing record. Those are some tough numbers, so I'm going with the Angels in this one.

The Royals’ Felix Hernandez is going to get some Cy Young votes as he is maturing into a top starter. The under has been 11-4-1 in his last 16 starts on the season, and 6-1 in his last seven starts against a team with a losing record. His career ERA numbers against the Royals are almost one run better than his overall performance. Brian Bannister has faced the Mariners one time this season, and shut them out over six innings. The Royals are now also 25-11 to the UNDER when playing on the road against a team with a winning home record, while Hernandez has led them to a 20-8 under mark against teams with a losing record. I like this one to go UNDER the total.

Results: 2-5

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• View baseball against-the-spread standings here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-27-2009
The Cincinnati Reds hung in the NL Central race for awhile, but those hopes have all disappeared as this team has sunk hard and fast, thanks to a bad run of 12-28 in their last 40 games. The Reds are ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-26-2009
Last year the Tampa Bay Rays surprised everyone by making it all the way to the world series. They have been good this season, but not nearly as good as a season ago. One thing that hasn't changed...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-25-2009
The Rays have been almost impossible to beat at home, but very suspect on the road where they are nine games below .500. It is also no secret that they are more vulnerable to lefthand pitching as well...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-24-2009
The Colorado Rockies have put together one of the longest and quietest positive runs in baseball this season. For what has amounted to a half-season of games, (their last 70 played), the Rockies ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-23-2009
Both of these teams sit at 51-71, but the outcome of this game shouldn't be as close. The Pirates looks for their sixth straight win here as the young players are starting to gel. They Pirates off...