Baseball Betting Free Pick - August 27, 2009

Last night, we added +10 units on the strength of our 2-0 sweep - both dogs (one at +180). Over the last two and a half months we are up over +150 units at 183-122, for 60%.

Today, we are back on the MLB diamond with seven plays including three 5-unit plays.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	83-72 last 155 picks	54%	+$390
MLB	183-122 last 305 picks	60%	+$15070
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$35240

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (2:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Milwaukee -1.5 runs +120 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)

The Cincinnati Reds hung in the NL Central race for awhile, but those hopes have all disappeared as this team has sunk hard and fast, thanks to a bad run of 12-28 in their last 40 games. The Reds are off of a win which has been the worst possible spot for them this season. They have turned in a .358 winning percentage on the season off a win, and that mark is now 7-21 after their last 28 wins. Against the run line they are 21-32 this season after a win. Bush has beaten the teams he is supposed to beat as the Brewers are 13-3 in his last 16 starts as a favorite. When placed as a run line favorite with odds at +135 to -190, Bush is 9-0 the past three seasons. He has pitched well enough at home for the Brewers to take command, where they are 35-16 in his last 51 home starts. I'll side with Milwaukee on the run line in this one.

This one is very chalky, but is it chalky enough? I say no. Chris Carpenter has made 21 starts for the Cards this season and in 19 of them, and adding in the bullpen, the opponents have scored more than two runs in just eight of them. The Astros’ Brian Moehler and the bullpen, have allowed four runs or more in 90% of his starts against a team with a winning record. Those teams with a winning record didn't just score four runs, they have averaged 6.3. The Cards are a hot team as it is winning 15 of their last 18 with opponents scoring less than three runs a game during the 18-game stretch. When Carpenter takes the hill as a chalky favorite of -201 or more, the Cards are 22-2. These numbers certainly show the odds here significantly better than the 2.7-1 needing to lay here. I'll go with the Cards in this one.

The Washington Nationals are 18-43 on the road and sure have had their problems. Even bad teams make runs during the long MLB season and the Nats are no exception as they ran off a 17-9 streak. They have since regressed to what they were before the streak, and that is just an awful team. They have subsequently gone just 2-7. The numbers get worse when they face a winning team on the road this season where they enter here with a 9-29 mark. The Cubs have destroyed this kind of team as they are 41-13 at home against a team with a .400 or less winning percentage on the road. They have also gone 10-1 in Wells’ last 11 starts in the role of a favorite and this certainly doesn't look like the spot he will get picked off. I’m going with the Cubs here.

Sometimes late in the season, the lines get quite chalky. Sometimes they are justified, other times not. This one is too chalky as overall, the Pirates are a team that is 20 games under .500, but a completely different team at home where they are five games over .500 and not deserving to be in such a huge dog role, especially playing as well as they have been winning six of their last eight, and four of those wins as a dog! To put in perspective how out of line this is, no disrespect to JA Happ who has had a good season. The Pirates have lined up at home vs. Cain at +105, Lincecum at +131, Grienke at +145, Santana at +130 and Wellemeyer at +100, so now they are +175 against Happ while they are playing well? Another thing to remember is that the Pirates have beaten eight of the last 11 teams that have come to Pittsburgh with a winning percentage of over .600. We have a live dog in this one, so I’m going to back Pittsburgh here. Oh and by the way, those five top pitchers mentioned above? The Pirates beat three of them!

This line is way off. When you look at the five top pitchers the Pirates have faced at home this season, and the lines they the only side to be on here is Pittsburgh on the runline. The Pirates are winning right now, taking six of eight, and beating the top teams at 8-3 in their last 11 against teams with a .600+ winning percentage. Those top five pitchers, Lincecum, Cain, Greinke, Santana and Wellemeyer, the Pirates hung in against. They won three of them outright and the two losses were by one run, making them a perfect 5-0 on the runline against the five best they have seen at home all season. JA Happ may be having a good season, but he is not in that company yet, but the line says he and the Phil's are much better, and the proof disagrees with that. I’m on the Pirates on the runline.

The Seattle Mariners lost over 100 games a year ago. Now as the season turns long, they are still in the hunt for a wildcard berth, so this team has made great strides in just one year. It is becoming a familiar beat in Kansas City as the Royals are 30 games under .500, can't win on the road and are coming off a 1-5 home stand isn't going to help matters. The Royals have struggled offensively, but when they have faced a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or less, as they will here, they are 39-95 in their last 134 games. Overall, they are now just 3-14 in their last 17 trips into the Western Division. They also don't get healthy in Seattle where they are just 5-16 in their last 21 played here. The Mariners have been soaking up the wins when they are supposed to win as they are 23-9 in their last 32 as a favorite. I'll go with the Mariners in this one.

The Kansas City road woes don't put them in the best of spots here. Their limited offense has been exposed in a big way for years against solid pitching. Pitchers with a WHIP of 1.15 or less have halted the Royals to a record of 39-95 in their last 134 games against them. The West hasn't been very friendly to the Royals either as they are just 3-14 in their last 17. Seattle hasn't been the answer to their road woes either as they have won just five times here in their last 21 games. The last 15 losses they have suffered in Seattle have seen 13 of the 15 decided by two runs or more. I will go with Seattle on the runline here.

Results: 2-5

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-26-2009
Last year the Tampa Bay Rays surprised everyone by making it all the way to the world series. They have been good this season, but not nearly as good as a season ago. One thing that hasn't changed...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-25-2009
The Rays have been almost impossible to beat at home, but very suspect on the road where they are nine games below .500. It is also no secret that they are more vulnerable to lefthand pitching as well...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-24-2009
The Colorado Rockies have put together one of the longest and quietest positive runs in baseball this season. For what has amounted to a half-season of games, (their last 70 played), the Rockies ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-23-2009
Both of these teams sit at 51-71, but the outcome of this game shouldn't be as close. The Pirates looks for their sixth straight win here as the young players are starting to gel. They Pirates off...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-22-2009
The oddsmakers have a forced hand here after everyone watched these teams put up 31 runs last night, so this one is padded. You know the Red Sox are going to take last night's debacle personally, ...