darrell,

4-1 yesterday as we've now won 5 of the past 6 nights. Three early picks today.

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Game: Kansas City at Toronto (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Toronto -170 (risk 300 to win 176)

Wow. Toronto laid a big fat egg yesterday losing as a -330 favorite with Roy Halladay on the mound. Just goes to show there are no locks. I like them a lot to bounce back here as even after yesterday's loss, Toronto is 8-3 at KC over the past three seasons. Ted Lilly is 6-4 at home with a 4.12 ERA while Odalis Perez is 1-3 with a 7.47 road ERA. I actually like Toronto's chances today better than yesterday because Lilly is a lefty. KC has major problems on the road as we know. But they also are terrible against lefties (10-28 record, scoring 4.5 per game). Combine the two and KC is awful. Toronto was shut out yesterday but that won't happen again here against Perez. Don't forget that the Jays score 5.6 per game and unlike KC don't struggle vs. lefties. Toronto scores 5.6 per game vs. lefties - better than their performance vs. righties. Lilly has not pitched well of late but he does have a great bullpen behind him and home teams starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games are 54-22 (71%) over the last 5 seasons. The Royals are 8-40 on the road vs. good power teams (1.25+ HR's per game) and 4-32 on the road vs. AL East opponents over the past two seasons. How will Toronto respond to their offensive goose egg yesterday? They are 14-5 after a shutout the past two seaons. Blue Jays here.

This is a momentum play folks. Detroit has lost four straight and seven of nine. Cleveland in contrast has won four straight and six of seven. Kenny Rogers has pitched well lately but he's not as good on the road as he is at home. On the road he's got a 5.33 ERA. Cliff Lee has a 4.37 home ERA and has been pitching very well lately, too. Kenny can pitch but he won't help an offense that is averaging just 4.1 per game over their last seven games. Detroit also scores just 4.5 on the road per game while Cleveland gets 5.7 per game at home and is averaging 7.3 per game over their last seven! And get this: as good as Rogers is, he's 2-17 lifetime on the road in second-half play vs. teams with power (1.25+ home runs per game)! He's also just 6-31 on the road in second-half play vs. teams that outscore opponents by 0.5+ runs per game.

Tampa Bay on the road? Yes, this quite a long shot play. But, I'm taking a flyer on the D-Rays in this one. They face rookie left-hander Adam Loewen who has been OK for the Orioles this season. Tampa Bay actually hits lefties well scoring 5.0 runs per game against them vs. just over 4 vs. righties. The Rays also score more than their average in day games and vs. division opponents. So, I think Tampa could surprise with some offense in this game. They could get 5-6 runs. How about Baltimore? Let's not forget this team really isn't very good. And, they face another rookie, J.P. Howell, who is also a lefty. Unlike Tampa Bay, the O's don't like facing lefties as they score just 4.2 runs per game against them vs. over 5 vs. righties. They are just 13-29 vs. southpaws this season. It's a bit of a flyer but I think Tampa Bay has a shot in this game and for +156 I'll take that shot.