Free Baseball Picks - August 26, 2008

We posted another winning day on the diamond as we took both of our picks, grabbing +4.5 units in the process. The win has pushed us to +19.5 units, hitting 70% (14-6) over the last week. Today we go with four plays including two 4-unit picks.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cleveland at Detroit (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Cleveland -1.5 runs -114 (runline) (risk 4 to win 3.5)

The Indians have had a dismal year, but they have been a red-hot team of late as they have now won eight straight. Now they have what should be the AL Cy Young winner on the mound in Cliff Lee. Lee stands at 18-2. How impressive is that? The Indians are just 45-65 otherwise. A 40% winning team that turns into a 90% winning team in Lee's decisions. The Tigers have gotten nothing going all season. The bright spot was when they were hitting LHP, to a record of 21-8, but recently that has stopped as they have now dropped four straight to LHP, and seven of nine. We like the Indians behind Lee on the runline here.

While Ben Sheets is a top pitcher, the Brewers started out 5-0 in his first five starts, but the results have not been impressive since. The Brew Crew has been just 10-10 in his last 20 starts. The count is worse when he faces a winning team, where they are just 4-6. Sheets has spent more than his share of time on the disabled list, and his innings have reached a point higher than any year since 2004. It has led to a fading ERA of 4.36 over his last five starts. Todd Wellemeyer has pitched great over his last five starts, not allowing more than three runs in any of them, while pitching to a 2.48 ERA in the process. The Cards get the runline call here.

The wheels have really come off for the A's as they are just 9-29 over their last 38 games. The reason is quite simple - they don't score! They have scored just 106 runs in their last 38 games, or 2.8 a game. The Angels offense has suddenly gone cold as well plating just 34 runs in their last 11, or three runs a game. Now they face a hot pitcher in Greg Smith who has a 1.72 ERA in his last three starts. The A's must face John Lackey, who is amongst the AL Leaders in ERA. Lackey has allowed three runs or less in 14 of 18 starts, and this game looks to be similar to last night's 2-1 score, so we will play UNDER here.

When the Twins traded Johan Santana, and Francisco Liriano was out most of this season as well, no one expected them to be doing anything except challenging the Royals for the basement in the Central. Here we are approaching Labor Day and the Twins are just one game back. Scott Baker is 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA and has pitched even better in his last three with an ERA of 3.10. The Mariners have been a disappointment all season. Ryan Rowland-Smith has been hit hard of late and we like the matchup here on the runline and will ride the Twins.

Results: 2-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• View our updated baseball blog.
• View our updated MLB Baseball spreads.
• View our MLB ATS records here.
• Check out 2008 baseball prior pick results here.
• Here we show our 2008 baseball handicapping preivew.
• View MLB handicapping philosophy here.
• Check out our updated free baseball picks.
• Check out baseball sports book here.
• Read our MLB Game Preview here.
• Take a look at our baseball prior picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-25-2008
Well you know what they say about payback. The Dodgers swept the Phillies just two short weeks ago in LA, and the Phillies are ready to return the favor. They have taken the first three games in this ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-24-2008
The Angels have been about the best team in baseball all season long. Ervin Santana has had a great year for the Angels and has been at his best over his last four starts where he has put together a 2...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-23-2008
The Nationals have proven one thing for sure this season. That is that they are capable of prolonged slumps and losing streaks. The other thing they have proven is once they break them, they tend to p...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-22-2008
The recently-acquired Paul Byrd goes for the Sox here instead of Beckett who is out due to numbness in his hand. Boston is just 2-6 this season against Toronto. The Jays go with Shaun Marcum who is 8-...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-21-2008
Josh Johnson has really given the Marlins’ staff a lift, as witnessed by his 3-0 record and 3.38 ERA. Even better, is that the Marlins have been victorious in six of his seven starts. It won'...