Free Baseball Picks - August 25, 2009

What a night! The Rockies' Ryan Spilborghs' hit a walk-off Grand Slam in the bottom of the 14th inning to give us the 2-0 sweep and deliver +6.5 units. Last night's winner lifted our two and a half month MLB run to 179-117 (60%) and a stellar +150.8 units.

Today, we are on the bases with DUAL 5-unit picks (six picks total), including one complimentary pick below.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	81-69 last 150 picks	54%	+$870
MLB	179-117 last 296 picks	60%	+$15080
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$35730

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto +120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)

The Rays have been almost impossible to beat at home, but very suspect on the road where they are nine games below .500. It is also no secret that they are more vulnerable to lefthand pitching as well. The Rays are 13 games over .500 against righthanders but under .500 against southpaws. Not surprisingly, that bad road record worsens when they are posted as a favorite, as they are just 9-23 in their last 32 as a road favorite. That means they are winning just 28% of the time as the so-called better team. Finally, they are also just 1-5 in Shield's last six starts as a favorite and 1-5 in his last six starts vs. the Blue Jays. These are not the type of numbers befitting of a team playing as a favorite on the road, and I'm going with a live home dog here.

The Cincinnati Reds hung in the NL Central race for quite awhile, but they have since totally fallen apart. They are just 8-24 in their last 32 games and are going through experimentation right now, looking at prospects for next year. It has gotten so bad for the Reds that in their last 29 losses, they would be just 3-26 to a runline of +1.5. The Brewers have been good behind Jeff Suppan. When the Brew Crew has allowed two runs or less in their previous game, they have turned in a 13-4 mark in that situation with Suppan on the bump. The Reds are heading nowhere, the lineup is cold and they are simply playing out the string. They have also dropped their last four games played in Milwaukee, and I think that goes to five tonight. I'm going with Milwaukee here.

The Cincinnati Reds have fallen hard and fast. This was a team playing .500 baseball about six weeks ago, and now have gone 8-24 in their last 32 games. They are not even in the neighborhood of being competitive as in their last 29 losses, they would be just 3-26 to a +1.5 runline. As bad as that might sound, the news for their backers gets worse when you put this team on the road. Their last 14 road losses would leave them at 0-14 to a +1.5 runline! They have dropped each of the 14 games by two runs or more. I'll go with Milwaukee on the runline here.

The Orioles have fallen off the face of the Earth on the road at 21-43, and appear to be on their way to a second-consecutive 50-loss season on the road. Those numbers get worse against right-hand pitching where the O's have turned in just a 14-38 mark in their last 52, or winners of just 26.9% of the games. The Twins, by contrast have been a dominating home team, especially as a favorite where they are 61-28 in their last 89, or winning 69% of the time. The Orioles have been bad playing in Minnesota, where they are 3-9 or winners of 25% of the last 12 played here. Add in the fact the Twins are killing left-hand pitching at home to the tune of 26-9, which is winning 74.3% of the time, and this line looks very favorable and loaded with value. I'll play the Twins here.

The numbers are so lopsided here with Baltimore in their least-favorable position at 21-43 on the road, and converting just 26.9% of their last 52 against righties, and dropping 75% of the last 12 played here. Those numbers reverse in favor of the Twins to 26-9 at home against lefties and winning as a home chalk at the rate of 61-28, or converting 69%. Yes, there are some one-run losses, but the numbers are so distorted, but not enough to take value away from a plus runline situation. I'll also go with the Twins on the runline in this one.

The St. Louis Cards were glad to get Chris Carpenter back, and he compliments their potential Cy Young winner in Adam Wainwright, to provide a solid one-two punch at the top of the rotation. Wainwright has been superb all season, but of late he has been spectacular. He has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of each of his last 11 outings, while pitching to a 1.44 ERA. That is 11 straight quality starts. He has also dominated this Houston lineup, as he is 6-1 with a 2.17 ERA lifetime against the Astros. Wandy Rodriguez has had a breakout season for the Astros, but recently has struggled to a 4.74 ERA in his last 3 starts, and is only 3-7 for his career against the Cards. I'll go with St. Louis in this one.

The Cards are fast becoming the team to beat in the NL, especially with the Dodgers dropping off from their quick start. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright is probably the top combo in baseball, and with Wainwright pitching 11-straight quality starts to a 1.44 ERA, it’s hard to pass up the runline here against a light-hitting Astros team. There is added value with the fact that Wandy Rodriguez may be hitting the wall pitching to a 4.74 ERA in his last three outings. They have also had trouble winning on the road with Rodriguez on the hill against a winning team, standing at 6-20 in their last 26 in that situation. The Stros are also just 1-7 in their last eight games in St. Louis, warrants a runline play on the Cards here.

Results: 2-5

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-24-2009
The Colorado Rockies have put together one of the longest and quietest positive runs in baseball this season. For what has amounted to a half-season of games, (their last 70 played), the Rockies ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-23-2009
Both of these teams sit at 51-71, but the outcome of this game shouldn't be as close. The Pirates looks for their sixth straight win here as the young players are starting to gel. They Pirates off...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-22-2009
The oddsmakers have a forced hand here after everyone watched these teams put up 31 runs last night, so this one is padded. You know the Red Sox are going to take last night's debacle personally, ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-21-2009
The Brewers lost Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia from last year's playoff team, but didn't skip a beat and surprised early by leading the NL Central. Reality has dealt a blow to those early-season ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-20-2009
The Seattle Mariners hung in the wildcard race for quite awhile, but are slipping fast. This team that lost over 100 games last season is vastly improved, but now face the rest of the season without a...