darrell,

Got both yesterday including another good-sized underdog. We're 5-2 over the past few day and today I like x picks.

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Game: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Philadelphia -105 (risk 200 to win 190)

Sure Philadelphia starts a rookie here but Cole Hamels has won four of his last five games. Over that span he's put up a 1.83 ERA. Facing him is Carlos Zambrano who is 13-5 but he's just over .500 at home and he doesn't get the kind of run support that Philadelphia provides. The Phillies score 5.2 per game on the road and they're averaging 6.1 over their last seven starts. Backing up Hamels is a bullpen with a 3.47 road ERA (contrasted with Chicago's 4.96 home ERA). Chicago scores just 4.3 runs per game at home, 4.1 vs. lefties like Hamels and they are managing just 3.0 per game over their last seven games. Phillies here.

The Mets are sending a message about who's #1 in the NL. THey've won six straight games and go for the sweep here against the Cards. Dave Williams gets the ball and he's got a 2.70 home ERA. Countering for St. Louis is Jason Marquis who's got a 5.30 road ERA. He's a lefty which is good for the Mets and bad for the Cards. St. Louis scores just 4.4 per game vs. lefties (vs. over 5 vs. righties) and their record vs. southpaws stands at just 17-28. The Mets are scoring 5.7 per game over their last seven games and they should bring more offense here. THey ahve a big bullpen advantage in case Williams gets in trouble. St. Louis is just 5-19 this season on the road vs. winning teams including 0-14 vs. teams that outscore opponents by 0.5+ runs per game! Take the Mets for the small price here.

We faded CC Sabathia and the Indians vs. Tampa Bay last week and got the win. While he is an excellent pitcher, the Indians on the road have a losing record and a terrible bullpen. That game played out as anticipated with the D-Rays reeling off several late runs after Sabathia sat down to get the win. Here again, we get a decent home team that scores 5.3 runs per game on .295 hitting at home. Cleveland scores 4.9 per game versus left handed starters and their bullpen on the road now has a 4-17 win/loss record. Lefty Mark Redman goes for KC and he's 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA vs. the Indians! He's 5-3 at home. The Royals are off a 15-run performance and teams off a game where they had 17 or more hits, starting a cold pitcher with an ERA over 7.50 over his last 3 starts are 50-23 (69%) over the last 5 seasons. Also, good offensive teams (5.4+ runs/game) facing a below average starter (ERA 5.70 to 6.20), after allowing 9 runs or more are just 14-28 (33%) over the past decade. Heck, KC is 6-2 vs. Cleveland this year. Cleveland is 12-18 as a road favorite this year. Live home dog here.

New York has won six of seven while Seattle has dropped 12 of 13. Yes, the Mariners took game one in this sereis but let's chalk that up to a little let down for New York after sweeping Boston. I mean how does NY get up for the Mariners after that series!?! Still Seattle gave up 5 runs in that win. During this losing streak, they've allowed 7.0 runs per game! Tonight they face Randy Johnson who isn't the same old Randy but hhe's still 8-3 including 3 straight wins. Jarrod Washburn pitches for Seattle and he's 6-12 including 4-5 at home. Seattle lost last night 2-9 and they are just 9-28 this season after scoring 2 or less runs. The Mariners are 22-61 as an underdog of +125 to +175 the past two seasons. Seattle scores 4.4 per game at home, 3.9 vs. left-handed starters and they are managing just 2.7 per game over their last seven games. New York scores 5.9 per game on the road and vs. lefties and they are averaging 9 runs per game over their last seven. Huge mismatch here.