Major League Baseball Pick - August 22, 2008

Over the last four days our MLB picks are hitting 71% for +3.8 units. Today we feature six plays from the MLB diamond.

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Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Boston at Toronto (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Toronto -106 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.9)

The recently-acquired Paul Byrd goes for the Sox here instead of Beckett who is out due to numbness in his hand. Boston is just 2-6 this season against Toronto. The Jays go with Shaun Marcum who is 8-5 with a 3.36 ERA. This line is off considering Marcum's success and Boston's road struggles on offense. The Red Sox are scoring just 4.5 per game on the road and have posted a 30-36 mark as a result. They are just 19-32 overall this season when the line is -125 to +125 and 1-12 on artificial turf! We like the Jays here.

The Yankees have really put their backs to the wall losing two of three games to Toronto, however they will have Mike Mussina on the mound tonight, who has bee sensational since early in the year. The Yankees have been 16-6 in Mussina's last 22 starts, and he has only given up more than three runs three times over those 22 games. The Yankees are also 7-1 in his last eight road starts. Radhames Liz has shown no ability to get hitters out at this level as witnessed by his jet-size ERA of 7.47. Recently the results have been worse as his ERA is 10+ over his last three starts. We will ride the Yankees on the road in this one.

We gave all the indications in our moneyline write-up why we are bullish on the Yankees tonight. We also like them on the runline where the Yankees have been 14-3 in the 17 games they have won with Mussina on the mound. We like the value here as well and will also ride the runline.

The Rangers’ Matt Harrison had a 9.20 ERA after his first three big-league starts and it sure didn't look like he was gonna last. Harrison has really come on since as he has pitched to a 3.55 ERA since with the Rangers going 4-1. Fausto Carmona had a breakout season a year ago winning 19 games for the Indians. A hip injury kept him on the sidelines most of this season. Carmona’s return however, has seen him struggle with location and control, much the same as he did prior to last year. The result has been an unimpressive 8.20 ERA in these five starts. This line reflects the Indians team of a year ago, along with Carmona of a year ago, and neither has been present this season, so we will ride the Rangers here.

As the Pittsburgh Pirates have thrown in the towel on '08 by dealing Nady, Marte and Bay, they are left with no punch in the middle of the lineup and no hard-throwing dependable lefthander out of the pen. It has left the Pirates 6-12 over their last 18 games. They have managed to score just 42 runs in their last 15 games or just 2.8 a game. The last time Pittsburgh came to Milwaukee with all the players they no longer have, they were ambushed by a total score of 22-8. The massacre could be worse this time, so we will ride the Brewers on the runline here.

Atlanta started the season as a hopeful contender in the NL East, and seemed to be by getting off to a 26-21 start. Then the wheels fell off and the Braves have been an awful 26-51 since. Their recent play has been the worst all season as they enter this one having been just 1-10 in their last 11 games. Adam Wainwright has pitched the Cards to a 9-4 mark in his 13 starts. He has pitched to a highly respectable 3.14 ERA in the process. The same can't be said for the Braves Charlie Morton who enters this one at 3-7 and an ERA hovering around six. The Braves have lost five of his last six starts by the combined score of 37-14, or just about four runs a game. We will ride the runline on the Cards here to pin another big loss on the Braves.

Results: 4-2

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-21-2008
Josh Johnson has really given the Marlins’ staff a lift, as witnessed by his 3-0 record and 3.38 ERA. Even better, is that the Marlins have been victorious in six of his seven starts. It won'...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-20-2008
The Pirates have remained a good team at home all season long, but taking to the road has turned them into a .377 winning percentage team. The offense has been missing since trading Jason Bay and Xavi...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-19-2008
There is no doubt Oliver Perez has great stuff as evidenced by his 15 wins for the Mets last season. He got out of the gate very slowly as his location and control did him in. As a result the Mets wat...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-17-2008
Detroit is just 3-16 since the All-Star break but today they send Zach Miner to the mound. Miner has gone 3-1 during their losing streak, posting a 2.15 ERA. He's facing a Baltimore team that ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-16-2008
While Roy Halladay is one of the top pitchers in baseball, Fenway Park hasn't been kind to him. The Sox have won his last three starts here and over his career they are 11-6 when Halladay takes th...