Major League Baseball Pick - August 22, 2007
3-1 yesterday, again with underdogs or even money plays. Over the past three days, we've racked up +20 units on 75% success. Today, four more underdog value plays.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Kansas City +101 (risk 4 to win 4)
Jose Contreras was 9-0 at the All-Star break last season and then the wheels came off. After the All-Star break he was anything but an All-Star pitcher. He limped through the second half with a 4-9 record and an ERA of 5.40. Along the way he allowed 97 hits in 86 innings. The nightmare continues into this season, but it's actually gotten worse. He has worked 135 innings allowing 170 hits, and his ERA has swollen to 6.18. The White Sox now have a record of 11-27 in his last 38 starts. It is hard to imagine, but it has gotten worse as the season progresses, and the White Sox have gone just 2-13 in his last 15 starts! The opponents have scored 122 runs in those 15 starts, good for 8.1 runs per game. Brian Bannister has suddenly become the ace of this Royal staff and the Royals are 10-4 in his last 14 starts. He has become a true stopper, as he has stopped losing streaks of 3, 2, 3 and 7 games during this stretch. He is 6-2 in his last eight starts after the Royals have lost. The White Sox are just 2-8 in their last 10, have won just 29% of Contreras' starts since the second half of last year, and KC is winning 71% of Bannister's starts since he has emerged as a quality pitcher. We will ride the undervalued Royals here.
Game: Seattle at Minnesota (2:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Seattle +108 (risk 4 to win 4.3)
Seattle's been very good to us this week and we'll continue to ride them for the sweep. They've won five straight and sit at 19 games over .500 and lead the AL Wild Card race. They've crushed Minnesota in the first two games (16-6 combined) and show no signs of slowing. Miguel Batista gets the call for the Mariners. He's 13-8 on the year with a 4.14 ERA. Over his last three starts he's gone 18 innings allowing just 7 earned runs. He's 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA lifetime vs. the Twins. Minnesota has lost eight of twelve and sends Carlos Silva to the mound. Despite a good 4.12 ERA, he's just 9-12 on the season thanks to Minnesota's offense (or lack thereof). Seattle is scoring 6.1 runs per game over their past seven and 7.6 per game in dome games this season. Minnesota is getting 3.7 per game over their last seven and just 4.1 per game overall at home this season. In august games, teams coming off three straight games with 12+ hits are a 66% play (38-20) over the past five seasons. Seattle is 15-9 this season when Batista starts including 10-2 vs. an offensively inept team like Minnesota (teams with an OBP of .330 or worse).
Game: Washington at Houston (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Washington +132 (risk 5 to win 6.6)
Washington continues to perform better than the odds-makers and general public want to believe they are. We nailed them last night at +150 and we'll get on them again here. The Nats rank third to the moneyline in all of baseball. This team is 24-19 over their last 43 games. They have done it with some young starting pitching and a bullpen that ranks fourth in the NL. They have gone 5-2 vs. left handed pitchers on the road during this surge, averaging 7 runs per game. They are 6-2 on the road when they are a +150 dog or less vs. a LHP. The Astros are just 12-15 in games started by Woody Williams, and he is backed by a bullpen that ranks second to last in the NL. The Nats have won Mike Bacsik's last six starts, and we will ride the value here, which is on the Nats.
Game: New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (10:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Los Angeles Angels -101 (risk 4 to win 4)
What's with this line? The Angels are an unreal 42-17 at home this season - that's 71%! They score 6.2 runs per game here. They have beaten the yankees 21 out of 32 times over the past three seasons including six of eight this season. Over the past three seasons they are 11-4 vs. the Yankees here at home. And this line is even? Again, the Yankees are overvalued here and we find a lot of value on the other side. Sure Andy Pettitte is on the mound for New York. He's got a very good ERA but he's just 4-5 on the road. And, John Lackey is no slouch. He's got a 3.32 ERA on the season and 6-3 record at home. The Yankees are a LOSING team on the road, where their offense falls ways down. When facing very good teams on the road (those that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game), Pettite is just 6-19 the past three seasons. The Angels are 9-1 in their last ten vs. winning teams and 11-2 overall vs. teams that are 54%+ this season! Great value on the home team that rarely loses at home.
Results: 1-3
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-21-2007
Chris Young has had a Cy Young year so far. He has an ERA of 1.93 and has been dominating hitters all season. Young has now allowed just 15 earned runs in his last 16 starts. He is actually a better p...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-20-2007
Sometimes even bad teams get on a little roll. The Giants have now won the first three games of this series, and four in a row overall. The same can't be said for the Marlins right now, who have n...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-19-2007
The starting pitcher matchup doesn't always decide a game but in this one it will. Roy Halladay starts for the Blue Jays who are 17-6 with him on the mound this season. He has been amazing at home...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-18-2007
The Nationals continue to be a good play in the second half of the season as they stand above the .500 mark, and have been equal to the Mets. They have been the best team when coming off a loss securi...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-17-2007
The Cards are right back in the race in the NL Central, as they have moved to within 2.5 games of the Brewers, and are now within two games of the Cubs, as they open a pivotal series at Wrigley. The C...
