Baseball Predictions - August 21, 2007

3-1 yesterday hitting with three underdogs for a +8 unit day. Four picks tonight.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: San Diego at New York Mets (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on San Diego -102 (risk 4 to win 3.9)

Chris Young has had a Cy Young year so far. He has an ERA of 1.93 and has been dominating hitters all season. Young has now allowed just 15 earned runs in his last 16 starts. He is actually a better picher on the road, as the Padres have now won 17 of his 25 road starts (68%) over the last two seasons. John Maine has really struggled of late. He's pitching to a 6.31 ERA over his last 35.2 innings, covering six starts, and has allowed eight HR'S. The Padres have the second best bullpen in baseball, and if Young does his thing, then the Padres have the pen to finish the job. San Diego takes the opener.

The Reds got hammered last night losing 14-4. That was vs. Hudson. Tonight they get rookie Jo-Jo Reyes who is only in the lineup thanks to an injury to Chuck James. Trust us when we say this is the last guy the Braves want on the mound. In five games this season, he's allowed 22 runs in 22 innings on way to a sky-high 8.73 ERA. He has no confidence, being thrown in here by necessity (vs. choice) and having come off a 3-frame 5 run performance vs. the Astros. The Reds are a team that can hit him, too (4.8 per game on the season, 6.3 per game over their last seven). Bobby Livingston has been decent for the Reds posting a 3.77 home ERA. The Braves get only 4.4 per game vs. lefties and their winning record turns into a losing one (23-29) vs. LHP.

Washington starts rookie Joel Hanrahan. When will this guy start getting some respect? He's given up no more than 3 runs in any start and boasts a 2.95 ERA. His counterpart, Wandy Rodriguez is coming off a bad loss (4 runs in five innings). The Nats, while 38-51 vs. RHP are a .500 ballclub versus southpaws. They dont' score a lot but right now neither is Houston (Astros averaging 3.0 runs per game over their last seven) and we think Hanrahan and a solid Nats bullpen can keep them way down. Washington is 12-5 in their last 17 vs. losing teams so they have a great shot at winning this game and a +150, we'll take that shot.

We cashed on Seattle last night at +146. We'll back them as a dog (albeit smaller one) again tonight. They've now won four straight, 10 of 13 and 16 of their last 22 games. Jarrod Washburn has been excellent on the road this season (3.63 ERA) and better than Scott Baker overall. Washburn has a career 3.33 ERA vs. the Twins. The Mariners are averaging 5.7 runs per game their last seven and they are above .500 on the road. Their bullpen is about as good as it gets. Minnesota's offense is horrible (4.1 per game at home). Despite a .500 record, they have lost money for bettors this season as they continue to be overvalued. Seattle is a team that can get on rolls. They are 19-10 following wins by 4+ runs and 16-8 after scoring 8+ runs this season. We'll ride their momentum again here.

Results: 3-1

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-20-2007
Sometimes even bad teams get on a little roll. The Giants have now won the first three games of this series, and four in a row overall. The same can't be said for the Marlins right now, who have n...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-19-2007
The starting pitcher matchup doesn't always decide a game but in this one it will. Roy Halladay starts for the Blue Jays who are 17-6 with him on the mound this season. He has been amazing at home...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-18-2007
The Nationals continue to be a good play in the second half of the season as they stand above the .500 mark, and have been equal to the Mets. They have been the best team when coming off a loss securi...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-17-2007
The Cards are right back in the race in the NL Central, as they have moved to within 2.5 games of the Brewers, and are now within two games of the Cubs, as they open a pivotal series at Wrigley. The C...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-16-2007
Don't look now but the St. Louis Cardinals are just two games back in the loss column and this is a huge game for them today. The Cards have won six of seven and have taken the first two...