Free Mlb Picks - August 20, 2009

Thanks to another 5-2 (+2 units), winning night around the bases, our MLB picks are rolling at 79%, 33-9, for a whopping +61 units over the last 10 days! Today, we are loaded and ready to fire with anonther six premium plays including another 5-unit selection.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Seattle at Detroit (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Detroit -165 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.2)

The Seattle Mariners hung in the wildcard race for quite awhile, but are slipping fast. This team that lost over 100 games last season is vastly improved, but now face the rest of the season without ace Eric Bedard, leaving a gaping hole in the rotation. The Mariners are just 11-14 in their last 25 games, and four of them were won by Felix Hernandez. Ryan Roland-Smith has done a superb job coming back off an injury, but he is facing a team that eats up lefthanders at 89-57 the last four years, and is also winning two of every three at home, and an even better 24-9 in their last 33. The Tigers have not lost more than one in a row at home in their last 16 played in Detroit, while the Mariners are now just 17-37 in their last 54 as a road dog. I'll go with the Tigers in this one.

The Tigers are winning their way to the AL Central title at home, as they are 24-9 here over their last 33. They have an above .500 record playing to a would be -1.5 runline in those 33 games, making the + odds on the runline spill value on the Tigers. When you consider that the Mariners, in their last 11 road losses, that 10 of them have been by two runs or more it just adds to the value here. I'll go with the Tigers on the runline here.

The Washington Nationals have played very well in the second half of the season, and they have put together a season best 17-11 run, especially since they were 26-66 before that. That is 65% of their season win total from that 26-66 start in just 29% of the games. They are certainly playing at a much different level. That mark is an even better 10-4 when they are playing at home. They have outscored their opponents by 25 runs during their recent 28 game stretch. The Rockies have not fared well with Hammels on the mound, and playing on the road where they are just 1-5 in his last six road starts. The Nats are suddenly good at home, going 10-2 in their last 12 games, and have won each of the last four game 3's in their series sets. I'll go with Washington in this one.

The Nats have played to a 17-11 mark in their last 28, including 10-2 in their last 12 at home. Those numbers are great, but get even better when you consider the would-be +1.5 runline. The Nats would be 12-0 in their last 12 home games getting the plus side of the runline, and I'll back them on the runline.

There are lots of reasons to play on the Cubs here. First, they will be breathing fire setting foot in here as the memory of the three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers last year in the playoffs will be in mind. The Dodgers are also in the midst of a bad stretch, dropping each of their last four home series, finishing 4-8 in the 12 games. Two of the four wins came by a single run resulting in just 2-10 mark to a would-be -1.5 runline they face here. The Dodgers are just 1-5 in their last six at home against a winning team. I like the revenge-seeking Cubs on the runline here.

The Dodgers have a deceptive record right now as they had the best record in baseball for a longtime, but have fallen rapidly as the season has moved along, and are just 9-15 over their last 24 games. They are just a .500 team at home after a tremendous 13-0 start and recently, they have been downright bad at home. The Dodgers have dropped each of their last four series at home, combining for a 4-8 mark. The Cubs are going to come in here very thirsty for a win in game one, off the memory of being swept out of the playoffs by the Dodgers in three straight last season. They are catching the Dodgers at the right time, as they are really struggling, and have scored ony three runs or less in over half of their last 23 games. This is a good spot with a good dog and with a big revenge motive against a struggling team. The Cubs get the call here.

Results: 1-5

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-19-2009
I keep saying this over like a broken record, but the oddsmakers can't make the Tampa lines at home chalky enough to take away the value. The Rays have been sizzling at home compiling an 83-34 mar...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-18-2009
The Indians have waited a longtime for Fausto Carmona to pitch the way he did in '07, when he won 19 games. He has battled through injuries, rebuilding arm strength, and appears to be back where h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-17-2009
The Brewers started the season apparently not missing the big losses in their rotation, but it has caught up to them. Tonight it will be sometimes starter, and sometime-reliever Carlos Villanueva. Vil...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-16-2009
The Blue Jays are just 24-34 on the road this season and in division games they are downright awful, having gone 16-28 on the season, scoring only 4.0 runs per game. At home, the Rays rock. They are 3...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-15-2009
The Pirates have played well at home, but when they take to the road, the wins have been hard to come by as they enter this one at just 18-42 on the season, or winning at a 30% rate. The Cubs really g...