Baseball Betting Free Pick - August 20, 2007

3-1 yesterday. Today we offer four picks including a 5-unit underdog selection.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: San Fransisco at Florida (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Fransisco +167 (risk 3 to win 5)

Sometimes even bad teams get on a little roll. The Giants have now won the first three games of this series, and four in a row overall. The same can't be said for the Marlins right now, who have now dropped five-straight games. Russ Ortiz is just getting his legs back, after serving time on the DL, and has a good history over the Marlins posting a career 9-5 mark with a 3.18 ERA. Sergio Mitre was touched for five runs in 6.2 innings vs. these same Giants this year. The Giants are playing well, while the Marlins have been struggling to find the win column, so we will ride the Giants for the four-game sweep.

Yes, Washington has lost four in a row. And, they can't score (averaging 3.9 runs per game). So, you have to ask yourself whether the Nats can score here. Facing the hapless Jason Jennings, we think they can. We love getting a dog here with this kind of pitching matchup. Tim Redding goes for the Nats and he's been great in his eight appearances, posting a 2.88 ERA. Jennings is 2-8 on the year with a 6.16 ERA. At home, his ERA is worse (6.40) and over his last three starts, it's up at 6.75. Washington has the better bullpen, too. The Nationals, 55-69 overall on the season, win their games against bad teams like Houston. The Nats are 30-24 this season vs. losing teams including 11-5 in their last sixteen! In those sixteen games, they faced a really bad opponent nine times (teams that have been outscored by their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game). Washington is 8-1 in those games. Back to Jennings - Houston is 3-14 this season with him as the starter including 1-9 at home and 0-7 as a favorite.

Don't look now but the Mariners have won three of four. On the surface though this looks like an  easy win for the Twins. With this pitching matchup (Ramirez 7.37 ERA vs. Garza 2.05 ERA), you have to ask yourself why the Twins aren't favored by more here. Consider that despite those ERAs, Garza has a losing record and Ramirez is 7-4. What MLB bettors often do is overvalue pitching and undervalue hitting. Backing up Ramirez is a very solid Seattle bullpen with a 3.31 road ERA and 75% save percentage. The Mariners score runs (5.0 per game on the road). Minnesota does not (4.1 per game at home and 3.6 per game over their last seven). We like the hot offensive road team vs. the low-scoring home team. MLB road teams off a win by 6+ runs facing an opponent after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less are an amazing 42-19 (69%) over the last five seasons. Seattle is 23-19 this season vs. winning teams and 34-24 vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 runs or less per game. Still scared about Garza? Consider that the Ms are 15-8 this season vs. starters with an ERA of 3.20 or less.

The White Sox have officially released the Royals from basement duties in the AL Central. It has been an up and down year for the White Sox, but mostly down. They have had some horrible stretches where they just can't win, followed up by periods of righting the ship, only to then sink again. Right now they have dropped eight straight and look like a team that has mailed it in. Kansas City has been quite the opposite. They were headed for another apparent 100 loss season, but the young talent and young pitching began to make progress. The Royals have gone 33-29 over their last 62 games, and that is a long stretch of .500+ baseball. So the reality is, this team is no longer a doormat. Gil Meche has been every bit as good as Mark Buehrle this season and Meche owns a 5-2 mark against the Sox. Also, the KC bullpen (3.96 ERA) is much better than Chicago's (5.24 ERA). KC hits lefties quite well (5.1 runs per game vs. LHP vs. 4.4 vs. righties). Nice value on the underdog here who cares more right now than the favorite.

Results: 3-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• View mlb against-the-spread records here.
• Don't forget to read our MLB spreads here.
• Don't forget to read our mlb handicapping here.
• Here we show our MLB Game-of-Day Analysis.
• View our updated MLB baseball handicapping philosophy.
• Check out our updated 2007 MLB baseball prior picks results.
• View our updated baseball sportsbook.
• View our updated 2007 MLB preview.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-19-2007
The starting pitcher matchup doesn't always decide a game but in this one it will. Roy Halladay starts for the Blue Jays who are 17-6 with him on the mound this season. He has been amazing at home...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-18-2007
The Nationals continue to be a good play in the second half of the season as they stand above the .500 mark, and have been equal to the Mets. They have been the best team when coming off a loss securi...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-17-2007
The Cards are right back in the race in the NL Central, as they have moved to within 2.5 games of the Brewers, and are now within two games of the Cubs, as they open a pivotal series at Wrigley. The C...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-16-2007
Don't look now but the St. Louis Cardinals are just two games back in the loss column and this is a huge game for them today. The Cards have won six of seven and have taken the first two...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-15-2007
Arizona got trounced in game one 14-5. We like them to come back and win as a dog tonight. They have still won 17 of their last 22 games and cling to the division lead over San Diego. We like Doug Dav...