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Three picks this afternoon.

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Game: Toronto at Baltimore (1:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Toronto -114 (risk 200 to win 175)

Toronto looks to Roy Halladay to help them avoid the sweep. Halladay is 15-3 on the year with a 7-1 mark and 2.83 ERA on the road. Laying this small a number on him is a gift. Sure, Erik Bedard has been very good for Baltimore but he isn't as good as Halladay - no way. And he's just 2-12 during August games over the past three seasons and 5-17 overall during the second half over the past two seasons. If history holds true, his best may be behind him. Toronto hasn't been scoring in this series but they may not need much here with Halladay pitching. He's got a lifetime ERA vs. the Orioles. Bad teams (46% or worse on the season) at +125 to -125 after shutting out a division rival are just 18-47 (28%) in that next game over the past decade. I expect the Blue Jays to bounce back behind the arm of Roy Halladay here.

The Royals have already won two of three so far in this four game series as Oakland. Runelvys Hernandez is awful on the road. But, at home he's 1-1 with a below average ERA. He is 28-16 vs. low scoring teams that put up 4.7 or less runs per game so this is an excellent matchup for him. KC is horrible on the road but decent at home (5.2 runs per game on .291 hitting). Oakland has been killing it since the All Star break thanks to great pitching and defense (they are aonly averaging 4.5 runs per game). Today they start Kirk Saarloos who is 1-3 on the road with a 7.25 ERA. His last three starts (all at home) netted a 7.47 ERA. I see KC scoring here as they are hitting .315 over their past seven games. Oakland is just 5-10 this season vs. teams at 38% or worse. And, road teams that bat under .265 facing a terrible starting pitcher (ERA over 6.70) are just 19-40 (32%) in second-half of the season play over the past decade. KC here.

Ervin Santana goes for the Angels and brings in a 7-2 home mark with a 2.85 ERA. Jake Woods makes his first MLB start for Seattle. The Mariners are down and out having lost ten straight games. I see no reason they can avoid the sweep this afternoon. They are 25-38 on the road and they are barely managing 3 runs per game right now. Backing up Santana is an excellent LA bullpen that has saved 17 of 21 and has a 3.27 home ERA. Seattle is just 14-29 this season vs. good bullpens like this. Angels for the sweep.