Mlb Game Predictions - August 19, 2009

We gave back a .5 unit yesterday going 3-2 on the MLB diamond.  Over the past week our MLB picks have hit 28-7 for 80% and +59.1 units.  This puts us at at  167-103 (62%) for +167.5 units over the past two months.  Today we have seven premium MLB picks including a 5 unit Underdog.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Tampa Bay -240 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1.7)

I keep saying this over like a broken record, but the oddsmakers can't make the Tampa lines at home chalky enough to take away the value. The Rays have been sizzling at home compiling an 83-34 mark as a home favorite and now also 69-24 vs a righthand pitcher at home. Rays also 47-13 at home with a posted total of 9-10.5 and with tonight's starter Jeff Niemann on the hill they are 10-1 in that spot. The Birds have been horrible on the road period, but as a dog of +201 or higher they are just 12-55. Looks like a chalky line, but taking a look at the numbers here says otherwise as a lot of four to one or better longterm situations in favor of the Rays, who I will back in this one.

All you had to see was what Justin Verlander did in his last game, especially late, to know this guy is zoned in and very strong right now. Verlander threw 123 pitches vs the Red Sox in his last outing and his final two pitches were fastballs, both clocked at 100 MPH! While he has struggled at times on the road this season, such has not been the case at home where he is 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA with opposing batters hitting .205 against him. The Mariners Ian Snell is lost on the mound right now as his teams are just 4-14 on the season with him starting. That includes a horrible 1-9 on the road. It will take a minor miracle for the Tigers to lose this one and will play Detroit here.

The Boston Red Sox have probably done a better job than any other team in baseball against Roy Halladay. What makes it an even more difficult position for the Blue Jays is they are a slumping team and even with Halladay on the mound they are just 3-7 in his last ten starts. The Red Sox have a winning record vs Halladay over the last three years and, for his career, Halladay has a 4.34 ERA against the Red Sox, a full run above his career average. Clay Buchholz has had success against the Blue Jays as he limited them to one run in 5.2 innings this year and in his last outing worked seven innings allowing one run. Red Sox really stepping up against top pitchers as they have turned in an 18-6 mark in their last 24 vs a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Going with the Red Sox here on the runline.

The Twins could have really caved in last night trailing 5-1 heading into the sixth, but ended up winning easily 9-6 and have the momentum coming in here after a 16 hit explosion. The Twins began the season at 0-4 with Scott Baker on the hill, but since then they have been an impressive 12-7 and also 5-3 in his last eight road starts. The Rangers have not been successful in Kevin Millwood's last six starts where they are just 2-4 and things don't get much easier here. Millwood has had fits with the Twins as he has taken the goose-egg at 0-6 for his career with a 6.00 ERA allowing 82 hits in just 57 innings and walking 21 as well, so just about two base runners per inning. Texas bullpen overworked last night puts the Twins in a good spot here and I'll go with them.

Looking at the track record the Twins have had against Kevin Millwood makes this one hard to pass up. Millwood has pitched the Rangers to just two wins in his last six starts, but now he faces the team that has had more success against him than any other. The Twins own Millwood and that is attested to by his career 0-6 mark, backed by an inflated ERA of six. He has allowed the Twins 82 hits in just 57 innings and adding in the walks makes for two base runners an inning. Getting +1.5 runs to go along with these numbers puts me on the runline with the Twins.

The Yankees will be in their most vulnerable spot as they call on newly acquired Chad Gaudin to face the A's tonight. Oakland is a team built around on base percentage and patient hitters, and since Gaudin walked 100 batters in an Oakland uniform in '07 in just 199 innings you know they will be taking a lot of pitches. Gaudin has already walked 57 in just 108 innings this season and his ERA was over five in the NL. The A's lost Brett Anderson's first six starts, but are now 7-2 in his last nine as he begins to figure things out and certainly is capable of a gem, more so than Gaudin. A's are playing well in the role of an underdog, winning six of their last seven and I'll go with them in this one.

The Yankees are light years beyond what the A's are this season interms of talent, but much closer when you consider the Yankees 34-27 road mark vs the A's 28-31 home mark. Put the A's pitcher with the best stuff on the hill vs the Yankees worst option that has not fared well and you have a situation that pushes the pendulum of value on the A's here and I will grab them on the runline in this one as well.

Results: 5-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Read our 2009 MLB picks here.
• View our updated mlb blog.
• View baseball gambling philosophy here.
• Here we show our MLB picks.
• Take a look at our MLB Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• View our sports betting mlb here.
• View our MLB Baseball lines here.
• Don't forget to read our mlb baseball picks here.
• Don't forget to read our baseball ATS standings here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-18-2009
The Indians have waited a longtime for Fausto Carmona to pitch the way he did in '07, when he won 19 games. He has battled through injuries, rebuilding arm strength, and appears to be back where h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-17-2009
The Brewers started the season apparently not missing the big losses in their rotation, but it has caught up to them. Tonight it will be sometimes starter, and sometime-reliever Carlos Villanueva. Vil...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-16-2009
The Blue Jays are just 24-34 on the road this season and in division games they are downright awful, having gone 16-28 on the season, scoring only 4.0 runs per game. At home, the Rays rock. They are 3...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-15-2009
The Pirates have played well at home, but when they take to the road, the wins have been hard to come by as they enter this one at just 18-42 on the season, or winning at a 30% rate. The Cubs really g...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-14-2009
The Cardinals have now had two aces at the top of their staff, with the return of Chris Carpenter and the emergence of Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has really turned into a No. 1 type starter. He has p...