Free Mlb Pick - August 19, 2008

We passed on yesterday's card, but come back with three more premium picks today including a 4-unit play.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Atlanta at New York Mets (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New York Mets -1.5 runs +101 (runline) (risk 2 to win 2)

There is no doubt Oliver Perez has great stuff as evidenced by his 15 wins for the Mets last season. He got out of the gate very slowly as his location and control did him in. As a result the Mets watched him walk hitters and give up big hits. As a result, the Mets were only winners in five of his first 13 starts. Perez has been back in the groove since then, and the Mets are now 9-3 over his last 12 starts. He has pitched to a 1.97 ERA over his last nine starts. The Mets would have gone 11-3 in the 14 games they have won if they were giving -1.5 runs. Jo Jo Reyes has been completely lost on the mound for the Braves. He has failed to get out of the third inning in each of his prior two starts, and the Braves have now lost his last six starts by a total score of 42-18. We like the Mets on the runline in this one.

It is hard to dispute the Cubs success at home this season where they have taken down opponents to the tune of a 46-17 mark and are also 26-8 against teams that are below .500. Those 26 wins include a record of 20-6 to the -1.5 runline. The Reds have unloaded the middle of their lineup, making deals that shipped out Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn. What is left has been just 5-17 over the last 22 games and has been outscored 131-75, or by an average of 2.6 runs a game. With the Cubs wheeling an ace out to the mound, we will ride the runline in this one.

The A's have been offensively inept over the past several weeks, pushing them from wild-card contenders to near the bottom of the league looking down at only Kansas City and Seattle - not very good company. The A's won here last night and have not won two in a row since July 8, and have only beaten one team with a winning record in back-to-back games since May 25th! The tally for the A's offense is 85 runs in their last 31 games, or 2.7 a game. It is hard to find the win column that way. One thing about the Twins is that they haven't lost back-to-back games to a team at home with a losing record all season, and this won't be where that streak ends. The Twins get redemption.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our mlb blog.
• Here we show our MLB odds and lines.
• Take a look at our baseball ATS recrds here.
• Check out 2008 MLB baseball pick results here.
• View our 2008 season baseball gambling preivew here.
• View our Baseball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• View our mlb free picks here.
• Read our sports betting baseball here.
• Updated today: Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Don't forget to read our MLB prior predictions here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-17-2008
Detroit is just 3-16 since the All-Star break but today they send Zach Miner to the mound. Miner has gone 3-1 during their losing streak, posting a 2.15 ERA. He's facing a Baltimore team that ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-16-2008
While Roy Halladay is one of the top pitchers in baseball, Fenway Park hasn't been kind to him. The Sox have won his last three starts here and over his career they are 11-6 when Halladay takes th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-15-2008
The Cleveland Indians did almost nothing for most of the season, but they certainly have come alive over the last 19 games where they have averaged 5.6 runs a game. The Indians seem like a team really...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-14-2008
Until there is a NY logo or a B logo on the caps of the Rays, this team will continue to offer value. If the Red Sox or the Yankees were on the road represented by a 72-47 record, this moneyline would...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-13-2008
This game is about who's hot and who's not. The Birds certainly aren't the hot team coming into this one. They have dropped three straight including the first two in this series. They have...