Free Mlb Predictions - August 19, 2007

2-3 yesterday. Four picks today.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Baltimore at Toronto (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto -181 (risk 3 to win 1.7)

The starting pitcher matchup doesn't always decide a game but in this one it will. Roy Halladay starts for the Blue Jays who are 17-6 with him on the mound this season. He has been amazing at home (10-1 with 3.36 ERA) and he seems to be getting even better. In his last three starts he's gone 22 innings, striking out 19 while giving up just 4 walks. Jeremy Guthrie is the antithesis of Halladay recently. He started strong, but the rookie has gotten shelled in his last three starts (15 runs on 26 hits in just 14 total innings). The Blue Jays are a great home team. They score more here and play great defense here, on way to a 38-24 mark. Back to Halladay: he is 13-4 with a 3.13 lifetime ERA vs. the Orioles. With him on the mound, his team has won 26 of 30 vs. low scoring AL opponents (4.7 runs or less per game) over the past three seasons. Riding him here.

We've faded the Giants on the road a lot this year but we like them in this spot. They are riding a season-high three game road winning streak and they face a struggling Dontrelle Willis who has put together a 1-8 record over his last 14 starts. He's fallen apart in late season play the past two seasons (4-10 vs. teams with losing records). On the mound for the Giants is Noah Lowry who has posted a 13-7 mark with a 3.28 ERA and he's been brilliant his last three starts (no losses, 4 earned runs in 16 innings). Florida is about as bad at home as San Francisco on the road. The Giants' problem is offense or lack thereof. But, Florida can't even beat bad offensive teams. They are 10-21 this season vs. NL opponents that score 4.3 or less per game. We'll fade Florida here as the Marlins are just 12-23 this season in expected close games (-125 to +125).

You know what we think of the Reds when Harang is on the mound. His 12-3 record on a losing team says it all. He's lost just once since mid-May. Reds record when he doesn't start: 34-63. When he starts: 19-6. Today he's opposed by Chris Capuano who is off three horrible losign performances. He has given up 16 runs in 15.3 innings. Harang hasn't had a lot of run support all season but he's likely to get it here. The Reds are averaging 6.4 runs per game over their last seven games and Milwaukee has allowed 7.1 per game over their last seven. Cincinnati has posted a 17-11 record since the All Star break vs. winning teams and with Harang starting, the Reds are 11-2 vs. winning teams this season! In contrast, the Brewers are 7-15 with Capuano on the mound this season. Even money on Harang is a gift.

With Jeff Francis on the mound, the surprising Colorado Rockies are 17-8 including 11-4 vs. winning opponents and 9-2 as an underdog. He has fared well vs. the Dodgers (3-1 with 2.80 ERA). They face Brad Penny this afternoon who has been very "on" this year but the Rockies lead the league in units won for bettors vs. RHP (+12). They ahve the offense to score here and they have had hot bats of late (6.3 runs per game their last seven). The Dodgers have looked pretty bad lately so we'll take the hotter team as an underdog here with a proven pitcher on the mound.

Results: 3-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our baseball against-the-spread records.
• Check out MLB odds lines and spreads here.
• View baseball predictions here.
• Updated today: Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview.
• Take a look at our mlb baseball betting approach here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2007 MLB baseball prior picks.
• Updated today: baseball sports book.
• Check out our updated 2007 MLB preview.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-18-2007
The Nationals continue to be a good play in the second half of the season as they stand above the .500 mark, and have been equal to the Mets. They have been the best team when coming off a loss securi...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-17-2007
The Cards are right back in the race in the NL Central, as they have moved to within 2.5 games of the Brewers, and are now within two games of the Cubs, as they open a pivotal series at Wrigley. The C...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-16-2007
Don't look now but the St. Louis Cardinals are just two games back in the loss column and this is a huge game for them today. The Cards have won six of seven and have taken the first two...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-15-2007
Arizona got trounced in game one 14-5. We like them to come back and win as a dog tonight. They have still won 17 of their last 22 games and cling to the division lead over San Diego. We like Doug Dav...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-14-2007
Look at the records and this looks like a mismatch in favor of the Angels. But look closer at the records and it looks like a mismatch the other way. The Angels have the second best record in baseball...