Free Baseball Picks - August 18, 2007

Five picks tonight on the bases...

As you have noticed, we are leaning towards underdogs at this time as we see value there. Bear with us on a winning percentage basis with these dogs. Remember that hitting 50% with underdogs is very profitable. Thanks!

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: New York Mets at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington +138 (risk 3 to win 4.1)

The Nationals continue to be a good play in the second half of the season as they stand above the .500 mark, and have been equal to the Mets. They have been the best team when coming off a loss securing more units for their backers than any other team. The Nats have been 11-4 as an underdog in their last 15. John Lannan has pitched very well, as he has posted a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts. Lannan is backed by a bullpen that is ranked seventh overall in ERA in the major leagues, and has the second-most wins. Oliver Perez has faltered in his last three starts, pitching to an ERA of 7.88, and the Nats own the second-best moneyline record in baseball against LHP. The Nats get the win and tie the series at 1-1.

The Reds did it for us last night and we like them again here. Milwaukee is ice-cold. They have now dropped five in a row and lost 9 of 11. They have allowed 8.5-runs per game (RPG) on average over those 11 games! Here they start Claudio Vargas who over his last three starts has given up 22 hits and 15 earned runs in 16 innings. Again facing a RHP here, they will likely struggle to score. As much as Milwaukee's defense is pitiful right now, Cincinnati’s bats are alive and well. They have averaged nearly 7-rpg over their last seven games. The Reds now have a 17-10 mark since the All-Star break against winning teams while Milwaukee has a 7-18 mark vs. losing teams. In expected high scoring games (total of 10+), the Brewers have been terrible this season, going 2-9.

Here we get a hot underdog against a cold favorite. The D-Backs have won 20 of their last 25 games while the Braves have dropped five of nine. Arizona has won 12 of the last 17 meetings between these two teams including six of eight here in Atlanta. Micah Owings has been red hot in his last three starts posting a 2.89 ERA, allowing just six earned runs and notching 17 strikeouts in 18.7 innings. The Diamondbacks have handled all comers since the All-Star break, posting a 13-7 mark vs. winning teams. They are 17-7 on the year against high scoring teams (4.8+ runs per game). Atlanta meanwhile has a 12-23 mark vs. teams at 54%+ the past two seasons.

The Angels have the best pitcher on the mound tonight. Jared Weaver is 8-5 with a 3.85 ERA and his pitching hasn't dropped off at all this season on the road vs. at home. Curt Schilling has been solid if not spectacular. He's allowing 7.2 hits per inning while Weaver is allowing just 6.25. Boston's hitting has cooled of late. Los Angeles has been very good against great teams this season. They are 18-12 against teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game. The dog days of summer have been a tough month for the Red Sox and Schilling in particular. In August games the past two seasons, Boston is 18-28 and 1-7 with Schilling as the starter.

One thing you don't do is start a LHP against this Mariners’ lineup. They have torched the south-paws at a .750 clip, standing at 24-8, tops in baseball. The top nine hitters on this team are batting .304 against LHP. The Mariners are even better at home. They stand at 14-1 in their last 15 at home against LHP. John Danks has not been the answer for the White Sox. He has pitched to a 6.92 ERA in his last six starts and appears lost on the mound. He has served up nine HRs in 39 innings in those starts, including three in his last outing against these same Mariners. The White Sox have been dead over the last week, and have now lost six straight and are heading nowhere. The Mariners have the best record in the AL over their last 10 games and this is a complete mismatch.

Results: 2-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

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• View our 2007 MLB prior pick results here.
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• View our updated 2007 baseball gambling preivew.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-17-2007
The Cards are right back in the race in the NL Central, as they have moved to within 2.5 games of the Brewers, and are now within two games of the Cubs, as they open a pivotal series at Wrigley. The C...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-16-2007
Don't look now but the St. Louis Cardinals are just two games back in the loss column and this is a huge game for them today. The Cards have won six of seven and have taken the first two...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-15-2007
Arizona got trounced in game one 14-5. We like them to come back and win as a dog tonight. They have still won 17 of their last 22 games and cling to the division lead over San Diego. We like Doug Dav...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-14-2007
Look at the records and this looks like a mismatch in favor of the Angels. But look closer at the records and it looks like a mismatch the other way. The Angels have the second best record in baseball...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-13-2007
Pittsburgh has to be confident here after sweeping the Giants at AT&T, while outscoring them 26-10 in the process. They handled San Francisco on the road, and they can definitely handle them here ...