Mlb Free Picks - August 17, 2007

Break even yesterday. Today we like four underdogs...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on St. Louis +131 (risk 4 to win 5.2)

The Cards are right back in the race in the NL Central, as they have moved to within 2.5 games of the Brewers, and are now within two games of the Cubs, as they open a pivotal series at Wrigley. The Cards have now won five straight while out-scoring opponents 46-10. Brandon Looper has owned this Cub lineup. He is 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA against them this year, and over the past two seasons, in 24 innings, has an outstanding 1.13 ERA against them. The Cubs are just 4-10 in their last 14 games, and the struggles are on the mound. They have allowed 87 runs, good for 6.2 a game, and it is hard to find the win column when the pitching goes south. Rich Hill was off to a great start, but the Cubs are just 5-12 in his last 17 starts. Hill worked through 6+ innings in 12 of his first 13 starts, but has managed to do so in just 4 of his last 10. The Cubs pen has given up 2+ runs on average, over his last 18 starts. The Cards are a hot team with a pitcher that has solved this Cub lineup, and with the Cubs struggling - winning only 29% of Hill's starts, and just 29% of their last 14 games, we have a very solid dog in this contest.

After one of the most amazing post-All Star runs that we can remember, the Yankees are showing signs of "regressing to the mean." After posting a 25-8 run, they have lost three in a row, allowing 26 runs. Despite that, they are laying a huge line here against a great team that easily beat them yesterday. Detroit is 67-54 (37-26 on the road) and scoring 5.7 runs per game. They crush lefty starters (6.1 runs per game on way to a 24-12) record. The Tigers can win against powerhouse offenses. They are 19-9 the past two seasons vs. AL teams that score 5.7+ runs per game. They have also won 16 of their last 23 vs. AL opponents that hit .285 or better. Yes, Andy Pettite has an advantage over Nate Robertson but it's not huge. With Pettite on the mound the past three seasons, his team has lost 27 of 41 vs. elite opponents (those that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game). Tremendous line value on this underdog.

It is easy to look at the overall standings and see who has the better team in this matchup. But it starts to look a bit different if you look at the standings since July 1st. The Nationals are 23-18 and the Mets are 21-19. The Nats have been the better team for the last quarter of a season and continue to improve. They have been terrific at home, posting a 14-4 mark and an amazing 11-3 record as a home dog. The Nats eat up LHP. While they are just 37-51 vs. RHP, they are18-15 vs. southpaws and are second in the majors to backers on the moneyline vs. LHP. They feature eight players hitting .280+ vs. lefties, versus just 3 vs. RHP. Tom Glavine is 41 years old and he started very strong, but since May 8th his numbers are not very good. Glavine has worked 102 innings, allowed 119 hits, and has pitched to a 4.94 ERA. His ERA prior to May 8th was 2.98. The Nats also feature seven hitters that have combined to go 37-100 vs. Glavine in their career, good for a .370 average. The Mets may be without Millege (flu like symptoms) and Delgado (hyperextended knee) again. Looks like another very live dog, and we will back the Nats.

Milwaukee, once unstoppable at home, can't win right now - even here. They have dropped 13 of their last 18 overall including four straight at home. St. Louis swept them here last series and it appears this is a slump that is not yet over. Cincinnati on the other hand has won seven of their last eleven. Bronson Arroyo has had a tough go of it of late. He was lit up by Washington on August 1st and San Diego beat him up in his last outing. But sandwiched between those two was a gem vs. the Dogers (6.7 scorless innings with only six hits and no BB). The good news for him is that right now Milwaukee can't hit. And, they've struggled to hit right handed pitchers all season long. He's also likely to get some nice run support as the Reds are averaging 6.3 runs per game over their last seven. The Reds are 16-10 in their last 26 vs. winning teams this season while Milwaukee is 7-17 in their last 24 vs. losing teams. We'll back the hot underdog vs. the cold favorite here.

Results: 1-3

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• Read our sports betting mlb here.
• Read our 2007 MLB betting preview here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-16-2007
Don't look now but the St. Louis Cardinals are just two games back in the loss column and this is a huge game for them today. The Cards have won six of seven and have taken the first two...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-15-2007
Arizona got trounced in game one 14-5. We like them to come back and win as a dog tonight. They have still won 17 of their last 22 games and cling to the division lead over San Diego. We like Doug Dav...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-14-2007
Look at the records and this looks like a mismatch in favor of the Angels. But look closer at the records and it looks like a mismatch the other way. The Angels have the second best record in baseball...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-13-2007
Pittsburgh has to be confident here after sweeping the Giants at AT&T, while outscoring them 26-10 in the process. They handled San Francisco on the road, and they can definitely handle them here ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-12-2007
Jake Peavy went through a dead-arm period as most pitchers do. Even with that, he has not allowed more than four runs in a start all season. He's back on track as he's allowed no more than one...