Baseball Picks - August 16, 2009

We posted a monster 6-1 day around the bases yesterday, good for +13.2 units!Yesterday's assault on the books lifted our stellar two-month MLB run to 61% (roughly half of all of our picks are underdogs!), 157-100 for an unbelievable +150 units!

Today, we are on the diamond with six picks including another 5-unit play.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Toronto at Tampa Bay (1:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -180 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.7)

The Blue Jays are just 24-34 on the road this season and in division games they are downright awful, having gone 16-28 on the season, scoring only 4.0 runs per game. At home, the Rays rock. They are 37-19, scoring 5.6 runs per game. They have struggled recently having lost five of their last six, but they are off a win and this is a good game to keep the momentum going. Four of those five losses were on the road and the one loss at home came at the hands of Roy Halladay, so don't be too concerned about the recent performance. The Rays start Matt Garza who has a 3.80 overall ERA which drops to 3.29 at home. Marc Rzepczynski goes for Toronto and he's got a 1-3 record and 6.75 ERA over his last three starts. When the Jays are off 2+ straight road games this season, they are 18-30. Tampa Bay is 35-11 at home in day games the past two seasons and 37-8 as a home favorite of -150 to -180. There's great value on the Rays here, even at this price.

We've cashed easily and big with the Cards in the first two games of this series and we're going big on them again here in the final game. Baseball is often about streaks and St. Louis has won seven of their last eight games. Eleven days ago they were trailing the Cubs in the NL Central but now the Cardinals own a 4.5 game lead! St. Louis has won 12 of the last 16 vs. San Diego including nine of ten games here at home the past three seasons. Kyle Lohse is 5-3 at home with a 2.81 ERA this season. The righty should give San Diego fits as the Padres are averaging just 3.8 runs per game this season vs. RHP. Over the past three seasons, the Cardinals are 20-4 at home against NL teams batting .250 or worse (San Diego's batting just .242 on the season). San Diego defines road futility. Over the past couple of seasons, San Diego is just 37-81 as a road underdog. This season they are 14-34 after 2+ straight road games and 10-28 on the road coming off a loss. I like the Cardinals a lot here.

St. Louis has found it easy to score against the Pirates, Reds and Padres. They've won seven of eight againt these teams, averaging 6.0 runs per game during the stretch, batting .333. The Padres allow 5.9 runs per game on the road on the season. Despite getting +1.5 on the run line virtually every game, they have still lost half of their road games to that line. At a run line of +1.5 with odds between +165 and -135, the Padres are just 7-15 this season. When playing a third-consecutive road game, they are 19-29 vs. the run line this season. St. Louis, meanwhile is a .500 team at home to the run line (usually -1.5). They are 17-10 to a -1.5 run line when the odds are between +135 to -190.

This total is set at 10 but that doesn't jive with how these two starting pitchers have been tossing. Granted, neither has has a good year overall, but Ross Ohlendorf has posted a 2.95 ERA over his last three starts while Rich Harden has put up a 3.00 ERA over his last three. While the Pittsburgh bullpen has been subpar, Chicago's has been great at home (3.38 ERA). The Pirates average just 3.6 runs per game on the road this season and 3.5 against division opponents. Over their last seven games, they have managed just 2.4 per game. Chicago averages just 4.5 runs per game vs. RHP so it's hard for me to see how this game reaches 11 runs. The recent history of these starters indicates this game goes UNDER.

It's been over 12 years since Chicago has recorded a road sweep vs. the As. I like Oakland to avoid it. John Danks is definitely the better starter here as Trevor Cahill has struggled all season long. But this line is fishy as it appears they are begging you to take the White Sox. Chicago is on the better run, they have the better starter who has never lost to Oakland, and the bullpens and the offenses are pretty even. But when things look too good, they usually are. Cahill, a rookie, is coming off four straight losses, but he may have turned a corner in his last outing, yielding just three runs and eight hits with no walks in seven innings to Baltimore. Chicago seems to let down against struggling pitchers. They are 8-14 this season vs. pitchers that strike out three or fewer batters per game. They are also 3-12 vs. pitchers that allow 1+ home runs per game. The Sox also struggle this season after a good defensive performance as they are 13-23 after allowing two or fewer runs last game. This is a good spot for a Sox letdown and I like Oakland to stave off the sweep.

Asking Chicago to win on the road here by 2+ runs is asking a lot. Oakland is motivated to avoid the embarrassing home sweep and they have enough offense to keep this one close, if not win it. Over the past two seasons, the A's are 22-13 vs. the run line at home when revenging back-to-back losses against an opponent. Chicago averages just 4.5 runs per game vs. RHP and coming off a very good performance last start, I expect Trevor Cahill to hold his own in this one. I like Oakland +1.5 here.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our 2009 baseball season prior picks here.
• Updated today: blog mlb.
• View our MLB baseball handicapping philosophy here.
• Don't forget to read our MLB prior predictions here.
• Don't forget to visit our MLB Game-of-Day Analysis.
• View baseball sportsbook here.
• Check out MLB Baseball spreads here.
• Read our mlb baseball predictions here.
• Check out MLB ATS standings here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-15-2009
The Pirates have played well at home, but when they take to the road, the wins have been hard to come by as they enter this one at just 18-42 on the season, or winning at a 30% rate. The Cubs really g...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-14-2009
The Cardinals have now had two aces at the top of their staff, with the return of Chris Carpenter and the emergence of Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has really turned into a No. 1 type starter. He has p...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-13-2009
There was a time that Mike Hampton was a highly-coveted pitcher. That was a longtime ago, and he hasn't been up to the 22-4 pitcher he was in Houston back in '99. What is left isn't much a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-11-2009
The Sox rebounded nicely at home last night with a much-needed win over the Tigers. The Tigers have played great at home, but have really struggled on the road where they are now 7-19 in their last 26...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-10-2009
The Florida Marlins wasted a big opportunity on their recent six-game road trip as they dropped the first three to lowly Washington, then went to Philly and got the three-game sweep. It still leaves t...