Baseball Handicapping - August 15, 2009

We took the 2-2 split last night, but are back big time today with seven picks, including a 5-unit and 4-unit play.

This month, we are hitting 70% at 30-13 for +48.8 units and over the last two months, we are hitting 60% (151-99), for +136.8 units. On the season, we've now more than doubled season-subscriber's starting bankroll (based on 1% of bankroll risked per unit)!

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	69-59 last 128 picks	54%	+$620
MLB	151-99 last 250 picks	60%	+$13680
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$34080

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs -170 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)

The Pirates have played well at home, but when they take to the road, the wins have been hard to come by as they enter this one at just 18-42 on the season, or winning at a 30% rate. The Cubs really get it turned up playing against the poor teams in the league at home, as they have compiled a 53-19 record against them, or a 73.6% winning percentage. Take those percentages and look at this line, and ask where the value is in this one? Zach Duke has pitched well for the Pirates, but with that said, they have still lost seven of his last eight starts and on the road, they have dropped eight of his last nine. This one shows solid value for the Cubs across the board, so Chicago gets the call here.

What a pitching matchup here as Tim Cain squares off with Johan Santana. The extra benefit here is that the Giants are at their worst offensively on the road and against a lefthander. Unfortunately, they get a top one here. The Mets' offense is missing most of the key figures and has been diminished by injury, that just will allow Tim Cain to be stronger. The Giants at 21-8 to the UNDER against teams with a losing record. And a strong Tim Cain, on five days rest has produced UNDERS at the rate of 7-0! Santana has also been given an extra day, and with five days rest, the Mets have played 8-1-1 to the UNDER with Santana. That combines two top pitchers with an added day rest, going 15-1-1 to the UNDER in this situation. I'll ride with them here, and play the UNDER in this one.

The Houston Astros will send Brian Moehler to the mound against the Brewers. Moehler has not been effective in his last four starts resulting in four straight losses for the Astros, and his 4-8 4.71 ERA career numbers against the Brewers, don't bode well for the Astros either. The Brewers recalled Mike Burns from AAA and he gave them a nice outing vs. the Padres, allowing just three runs in a 4-2 loss. The Astros have not fared well in games with a high total, as they are now 1-10 in when the total has been set at 9-10.5. Both of these pitchers have combined play to a 17-9 mark if the total were set at the same level it is for this one, to the UNDER. And with Moehler on the hill following an Astros loss, they have played UNDER to a 15-6-2 mark. I like Milwaukee here, and for this one to go under the total.

The Brewers have the Astros in a place where they are at their worst, having dropped 10 of 11 when the total is set from 9-10.5 in their games, mainly because they just don't score enough. They have also had little to no success playing in Milwaukee, where they are now 4-14 in their last 18 games played here. The Astros have also been horrid on the road where they are 3-11 in their last 14, so I'm also going with Milwaukee on the runline here.

Here we are with the Cards again as a heavy chalk, but is it heavy enough when they are in a situation that has led to a 134-38 mark over the last 172 and that is once again live for tonight's game. When you throw in the Padres record of 11-41 or 21.1% winners on the road against a team with a winning record, then that puts additional value on this one in favor of the Cards, and the Padres have yet to beat a team with a winning record with Stauffer on the mound. The Cards are 54-18 as a chalk of -201 or higher in their last 72 meaning they win three of every four - further value here. The Padres' last straw is that they are a pathetic 8-29 in their last 37 played in St. Louis. I'm on the Cards in this one.

There are a lot of shortcomings to this game, in terms of excessive advantages to the Cards that point to tremendous value here. The Padres have managed just eight wins in St. Louis over their last 37 games. They are also just 11-41 on the road in their last 52 against a team with a winning record. The Cards are making minced meat out of the chalky lines, cashing three of four in their last 72 at 54-18. The Padres are not getting it done on the road, and the offense has been brutal. I'm going with the Cards on the runline.

Results: 6-1

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-14-2009
The Cardinals have now had two aces at the top of their staff, with the return of Chris Carpenter and the emergence of Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has really turned into a No. 1 type starter. He has p...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-13-2009
There was a time that Mike Hampton was a highly-coveted pitcher. That was a longtime ago, and he hasn't been up to the 22-4 pitcher he was in Houston back in '99. What is left isn't much a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-11-2009
The Sox rebounded nicely at home last night with a much-needed win over the Tigers. The Tigers have played great at home, but have really struggled on the road where they are now 7-19 in their last 26...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-10-2009
The Florida Marlins wasted a big opportunity on their recent six-game road trip as they dropped the first three to lowly Washington, then went to Philly and got the three-game sweep. It still leaves t...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-09-2009
Don't look now but the Nationals are winning! They have posted seven straight wins and go for a sweep over the Diamondbacks this afternoon. I think they get it. Are the Nationals as good as they a...