Baseball Betting Free Pick - August 15, 2007
3-2 yesterday. Three plays tonight including a couple of underdogs.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Arizona at Florida (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Arizona +115 (risk 3 to win 3.5)
Arizona got trounced in game one 14-5. We like them to come back and win as a dog tonight. They have still won 17 of their last 22 games and cling to the division lead over San Diego. We like Doug Davis who has a 3.27 road ERA (2.05 in his last three starts). Over the past two seasons, with him on the mound the D-Backs are 18-5 when facing NL teams that score 4.8+ per game. Meanwhile, Florida is 2-10 with Mitre starting agains poor offensive teams (scoring less than 4.3 runs per game). They are also 1-8 with him starting as a favorite of -100 to -150. The D-Backs are averaging 5.7 runs per game overall over their last seven. Florida hits lefties well but it doesn't translate very will into wins as they still own just a 16-20 mark vs. southpaws this season. Arizona to bounce back here.
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Toronto -131 (risk 2 to win 1.5)
Take the Angels out of Anaheim and they become a sub .500 team. Take their two aces off the hill (Lackey and Escobar), and they are a horrible 14-24 on the road. Put the Blue Jays at home in Toronto and they are 26-11 in their last 37. The Jays have outscored the opponent 80-33 in their last 11 home games. Shaun Marcum has pitched the Jays to an 11-5 record in his starts and a 6.06 ERA out of the pen, has been reduced to 3.43 since he has started. Dustin Mosely has really struggled, having given up more earned runs (18) than innings pitched (17) the last four times he has toed the rubber. We look for the Jays to go up 2-0 in this series.
Game: Detroit at Cleveland (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Detroit +173 (risk 3 to win 5.2)
Value here as Detroit is 3-1 in their last four while Cleveland is 0-4. In those four loss, the Tribe has scored just 8 runs. This line is where it is thanks to the pitching matchup. Fausto Carmona is 13-8 with a solid 3.26 ERA. Despite that, he is 0-3 in his last three starts. Detroit starts Jair Jurjens in his MLB debut. In AA ball he posted a winning record and 3.20 ERA. The question is, can the Indians hit anyone right now? Detroit is scoring - there is no doubt about that. They average 5.9 per game on the road this season. Cleveland is now just 4-12 in their last sixteen vs. winning teams including 1-9 vs. teams winning 54%+ on the season. On the flipside, Detroit is 23-18 the past two seasons as a dog of +125 to +175 and they are 16-7 on the road vs. division foes. Great value here with this line on the Tigers.
Results: 2-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-14-2007
Look at the records and this looks like a mismatch in favor of the Angels. But look closer at the records and it looks like a mismatch the other way. The Angels have the second best record in baseball...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-13-2007
Pittsburgh has to be confident here after sweeping the Giants at AT&T, while outscoring them 26-10 in the process. They handled San Francisco on the road, and they can definitely handle them here ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-12-2007
Jake Peavy went through a dead-arm period as most pitchers do. Even with that, he has not allowed more than four runs in a start all season. He's back on track as he's allowed no more than one...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-11-2007
The Red Sox continue to struggle against LHP, especially on the road. The loss last night moves the Red Sox to 4-13 in their last 17 road outings against LHP. As good as Boston's record looks in t...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-10-2007
Minnesota is now 3-8 in their last eleven road games. And they have very little offense right now having scored 3 or fewer runs in eleven of their last 14 games overall. They face Kelvim Escobar who h...
