Mlb Predictions - August 14, 2007

2-3 yesterday. We'll come back with five selections again tonight.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto -159 (risk 3 to win 1.9)

Look at the records and this looks like a mismatch in favor of the Angels. But look closer at the records and it looks like a mismatch the other way. The Angels have the second best record in baseball, but most of that was established while playing at home. The Angels are a sub-.500 team on the road. The Blue Jays are a mediocre team overall but at home they are a top team. The Jays are 28-12 in their last 40 at home and they stand at 29-8 the last three years when Halladay starts at home. One thing about quality pitchers is they usually don't pitch poorly for long. Halladay has given up 4 runs in each of his last two starts. He has followed a stretch of two starts allowing four or more runs with two shutouts, a 1 run game, and another yielding 4 runs. Expect him to be on tonight. Joe Saunders is 6-0, but over his last five starts just a 4.50 ERA. That won't be good enough against Halladay. The Jays are also lethal against LHP. They are 13-4 vs. LHP at home and they are not taking down cupcakes. They have beaten Kazmir, Buerhle, Santana, Pettitte twice and Bedard. Jays take the opener.

The Pirates have closed the gap between themselves and some of the weak teams, but when it comes to teams that are .500+, it is a completely different story. The Pirates are 34-26 vs the sub .500 teams and just 15-41 against the .500+ teams. That is a .267 winning percentage. They face the Mets tonight who will send El Duque to the hill - their best pitcher this season. The Mets have won his last six starts and he continues to pitch well every time out. Ian Snell has not pitched well at all, and the Pirates have now lost his last six starts, getting outscored 44-15 in the process. Snell has carried a 7.31 ERA through those six games. This is a very low moneyline based on the set of circumstances for tonight's game, and we will ride the Mets big here.

New York continues their meteoric post All-Star rise having won 12 of their last 14. Right now they are playing with an incredible amount of confidence and it's letting their true talent show through. They are only four games out now which is truly amazing. We took a shot on the Orioles last night given the value at +220. Baltimore actually had that game but the Yankees snatched it it away with a Derek Jeter signle in the ninth. That just shows that right now the Yankees just can't lose - even in games with a bad start and a blown save. So, with that said, we aren't too worried about the Jeff Karstens start. The Yankees will score against Cabrera who yieled eight runs (seven earned) in just over five innings to the Mariners in his last start. Baltimore's bullpen is awful (5.16 road ERA with 61.9% saves). New York is averaging 7.9 runs per game in August having scored less than 5 runs just once (vs. Roy Halladay)! They have put up 7+ runs in eight of their twelve August games. Baltimore scores just 4.5 per game ont he road where they are 25-35. They are also just 19-37 vs. winning teams so we don't see them surprising here.

What would the Reds be without Aaron Harang? They have gone 32-61 (.344) in games in which he hasn't started, which projects to a 55-107 season. When he starts they are the best team in baseball, as they are 18-6 .750, or 122-40 over 162 games. That includes a loss in a game he left in the first inning with back stiffness. The Reds have won his last 10 starts otherwise. The Cubs have gone from one of the hottest teams to one of the coldest, as they stand just 3-8 in their last 11 games with seven of those games posting 3 runs or less. Carlos Zambrano had been the hottest pitcher in baseball, but has suddenly lost the plate and his dominance as well. Zambrano has walked 10 in his last 10 innings and those control issues have led to 20 baserunners in his last 10 innings. Zambrano went 11 straight starts without allowing more than 8 baserunners but he has allowed 9 or more in his last two. Harang has won duels with Capuano, Smoltz, Maine, Zito and Sabathia and already is 2-0 vs. Zambrano this season. We will take a pitcher that has led his team to an 18-6 mark as a dog every time, and we have been on Harang through most of this streak.

The M's have won six of seven while Minnesota has lost seven of eight. Justin Morneau, reigning AL MVP has been extremely dry as Minnesota's offense is non-existent. Morneau is just 6-for-43 (.140) with no walks this month. The Twins are averaging just 3.0 runs per game over their last seven. They've struggled to score vs. lefties all year long (4.2 per game). This line is held down thanks to the starting pitching matchup. Matt Garza has a 1.80 ERA in six starts while Horacio Ramirez has a 7.12 ERA in 13 stars. But, let's look deeper. In his starts, Garza is 1-3 while Ramirez is 7-3. At home, Ramirez has a perfect 6-0 record and 3.24 ERA! Combine that with Seattle's strong bats (7.3 per game over last seven games) and you have great line value here on a hot home team at even money.

Results: 3-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our MLB ATS records.
• Here we show our MLB odds lines and spreads.
• Don't forget to read our mlb baseball predictions here.
• Take a look at our MLB Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• View baseball betting approach here.
• Here we show our 2007 MLB picks season results.
• Here we show our mlb sportsbooks.
• View 2007 MLB baseball season preview here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-13-2007
Pittsburgh has to be confident here after sweeping the Giants at AT&T, while outscoring them 26-10 in the process. They handled San Francisco on the road, and they can definitely handle them here ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-12-2007
Jake Peavy went through a dead-arm period as most pitchers do. Even with that, he has not allowed more than four runs in a start all season. He's back on track as he's allowed no more than one...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-11-2007
The Red Sox continue to struggle against LHP, especially on the road. The loss last night moves the Red Sox to 4-13 in their last 17 road outings against LHP. As good as Boston's record looks in t...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-10-2007
Minnesota is now 3-8 in their last eleven road games. And they have very little offense right now having scored 3 or fewer runs in eleven of their last 14 games overall. They face Kelvim Escobar who h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-09-2007
Not sure how a team that is 1-9 in their last 10 games, and has been shutout three straight, and four of five ends up a favorite, but we will bite. The Dodgers offense has gone as stone cold, as ...