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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
MLB Baseball Premium Edition
August 14, 2006

darrell,

3-1 yesterday including winners on both the 4-star and 5-star. Two picks tonight.

WUNDERDOG 2006 RESULTS (UNITS)
SPORTWINS-LOSSES%UNITS
NFL 4-2 last 6 picks 67%+2
NFL 87-62 last season 58%+25
MLB 12-6 last 18 picks 67%+2.3
NHL 208-140 last season 60%+24.6
CBB 174-128 last season 58%+46
NBA 207-197 last season 51%+10
CFB 66-61 last season 52%+5
TOTAL  +114.9

Check out my 12-month performance here.

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The Wunderdog


Premium Picks

Game: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Pittsburgh +111 (risk 300 to win 333)

The Pirates took three straight from the Cardinals - who woulda thunk it? They outscored St. Louis 17-3 and carry that momentum into this game against the Brewers. In a sign of how much respect Pittsburgh demands, they are a home underdog again - this time against a bad road team that is 21-38 away from home. The Brewers are batting .233 over their last seven games and their bullpen play, especially on the road, is awful (5.07 ERA with a 5-14 record). Contrast that to Pittsburgh's home bullpen play (3.30 ERA). Pittsburgh is actually a decen home team! They are 31-28 here where they bat .287 and score 5 runs per game. They are 12-5 here at home in the second half of the season. I haven't mentioned the starting pitchers yet because they are both average with mid 4-ERAs in their starts. Milwaukee's Dave Bush however hasn't won in 7 tries on the road vs. division opponents this season. And the Brewers are just 16-29 vs. losing teams this year. Wrong team favored here.


Game: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Chicago White Sox -250 (risk 200 to win 80)

Yeah, we'll continue to beat up on KC. Another big line but one that's well worth laying. Chicago comes off a sweep of the team with the best record in the Majors (Detroit). Now they face the second worse road team in the league and a team against which they own a 21-4 home mark the last three seasons. Both starters haven't performed well of late but Jon Garland is 12-4 at home while Mark Redman is 2-4 on the road. Garland is 11-5 vs. the Royals. Backing up Garland is a Chicago bullpen that has a 3.72 home ERA and 11-7 record. KC's bullpen is 6-14 on the road with a 5.54 ERA. Then we have run support - a no contest. Chicago scores 5.7 per game at home while KC manages just 3.8 per game on the road. KC is now 3-25 on the road vs. teams that score 5.2+ runs per game this season and 3-27 on the road vs. teams averaging 1.25+ home runs per game. Big time mismatch here - take the Sox.


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Pass It On
How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
Pass It On

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The Wunderdog

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